Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Sep. 2024)

The larger-than-expected fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of September, to 4.7% y/y, supports our view that Banxico will continue its easing cycle with another 25bp cut on Thursday.

24th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Event

LatAm Drop-In: Mexico’s economy and markets as Sheinbaum takes charge

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Our economists think Mexico will be Latin America’s worst-performing economy in the coming years. Will its new president be able to change the narrative?

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina’s budget, Brazil’s hike, new macro forecasts

The Argentine government's ambitious 2025 budget plans unveiled this week are underpinned by very optimistic economic projects and meeting the 'zero deficit' target will be challenging. And at the...

20th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economic Outlook

Sluggish growth but stubborn inflation

Tight policy and deteriorating terms of trade will keep growth across Latin America subdued and we think that the region will underperform other parts of the emerging world – as well as consensus...

19th September 2024 · 19 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Sep. 2024)

18th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Markets Update

Depreciation in Mexican peso may have a bit further to run

Despite the peso’s recent rebound, we suspect that an unstable political and economic outlook means that it, and Mexican financial assets more generally, will perform poorly over the next year or so.

17th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (September 2024)

EM recoveries are beginning to slow and will continue to do so over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Asia the outperformer and Latin America the laggard...

17th September 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EMs: key client questions answered

We recently held a series of EM-focused client meetings in Switzerland and Germany which covered a wide range of topics, including the impact of global fracturing, AI and the green transition on...

16th September 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Amlo’s last hurrah, oil price drop, Fed easing and Lat Am

Outgoing Mexican President Amlo’s controversial judicial reform has been one of the key drivers of the weakness in the peso and we think there’s still some downside risk to the currency, especially if...

13th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

What the Fed’s easing cycle means for EMs

The Fed’s upcoming monetary easing cycle will probably provide less of a tailwind to EMs than is widely thought. While it’s likely to give some central banks (such as in the Gulf, Mexico and Indonesia...

12th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Mexico’s constitutional reforms: Amlo’s parting shot?

The approval by Mexico's Senate to a sweeping judicial reform has removed the last big obstacle to outgoing President López Obrador’s controversial plan to overhaul the justice system. In light of...

11th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (Aug. 2024)

Brazil’s headline inflation dropped back to 4.2% y/y in August, but there was yet another increase in underlying services inflation which sets the stage for an interest rate hike at next week’s policy...

10th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug. 2024)

The larger-than-expected fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 5.0% y/y in August, alongside the likelihood of a Fed rate cut next week, mean that Banxico is on track to lower its policy rate...

9th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Brazil: labour market driving spending and inflation fears

The tightening of Brazil’s labour market and pick-up in wage growth over the first half of the year has supported a consumer boom. We expect conditions to cool over the coming quarters but, for now...

5th September 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM manufacturing set for a weaker Q3

After a large fall in July, the EM manufacturing PMI only edged up slightly last month, suggesting that the sector fared worse in Q3 than in the first half of the year. The PMIs did at least provide...

3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read