Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Oct.) Mexico’s headline inflation rate came in at a weaker-than-expected 8.4% y/y in October and, while this is unlikely to prevent Banxico from delivering another 75pb interest rate hike, to 10.00%... 9th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Tougher times may lie ahead for Brazil’s markets Brazil’s financial markets have been some of the world’s best performers lately, supported in part by the prospect of centrist policymaking by incoming president Lula. With the presidential election... 8th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s current account deficit to widen Mexico’s current account deficit is likely to widen over the coming quarters and, while it will remain modest compared with other parts of Latin America, we expect the peso to come under pressure. 7th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Lula’s win, Chile’s pensions Financial markets responded positively to Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday. But we’re still waiting for more concrete details of whether Lula’s pledges to raise spending can be met while also... 4th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s current account deficit a growing risk Colombia’s current account deficit has, somewhat surprisingly, widened this year despite the boost to the country’s terms of trade from high oil prices, and now stands at an alarming level. And the... 1st November 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Sep.) The 0.7% m/m decline in Brazilian industrial production in September suggests that the sector made a negative contribution to GDP growth over Q3 as a whole. With other sectors faring surprisingly well... 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Brazil’s markets could come under pressure before long We suspect investors are a bit too optimistic about the outlook for Brazil’s public finances, and as such its financial markets may come under pressure before too long. 31st October 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q3 Prov.) Provisional GDP figures show that Mexico’s economy expanded by a stronger-than-expected 1.0% q/q in Q3, but a recession in the US alongside tight fiscal and monetary policy mean that the economy will... 31st October 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What to watch after Lula’s victory The narrow victory for Lula in the second-round of Brazil’s presidential election yesterday has, so far, thankfully not been contested by Bolsonaro. But there’s still likely to be a negative reaction... 31st October 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s tightening election race The second-round of Brazil’s presidential election race on Sunday is looking much closer than had seemed likely a few weeks ago. Lula still appears to be the favourite. But the rising likelihood of a... 28th October 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus What’s behind Brazil’s productivity problem? Brazil’s economy has a deep-seated problem of low productivity growth and it’s hard to see either presidential candidate undertaking the reforms needed to lift investment, strengthen competitive... 28th October 2022 · 17 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds set stage for sluggish growth EM GDP growth has slowed sharply this year and is likely to remain sluggish in 2023 and 2024 as weak external demand and tight financial conditions take their toll. Having started hiking rates much... 27th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: How will EM economies and markets fare in the global downturn? 1667487600 Economists from our Emerging Markets and Markets teams discussed the outlook for EM financial markets in this regular dive into the big stories in EMs.
Latin America Economics Update Copom: staying hawkish despite inflation plunge The hawkish language in the statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s decision late yesterday, at which it left the Selic rate at 13.75%, reinforces our view that the sharp fall in inflation... 27th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack All eyes on Brazil Brazilians head to the polls on Sunday to decide who’ll become the country’s next president in a heated run-off election between incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and his left-wing rival Lula. Lula is still... 25th October 2022 · 12 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (October 2022) The drop in Brazilian inflation to an 18-month low of 6.9% y/y in the first half of October reinforces the view that the central bank’s tightening cycle is at an end. Even so, the strength of... 25th October 2022 · 2 mins read
