Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry set to slow further The EM manufacturing PMI broadly plateaued in November, but the surveys remained weak in parts of Central Europe and recorded sharp declines in Brazil, Colombia and Vietnam. On the bright side, price... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q3 2022) The weaker-than-expected Brazilian Q3 GDP growth figure, of 0.4% q/q, highlights that the weakening global economy and higher interest rates are bringing the recent period of strong growth to an end... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico debate, Lula tacks back, Argentina’s struggles The further rise in core inflation in the first half of November suggests that the debate at Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) over when to end the tightening cycle is set to heat up. The risks are... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Past peak inflation – what now for EM policymakers? 1669906800 Inflation appears to have finally peaked for emerging markets – but how quickly will price pressures now ease, and what will that mean for the 2023 outlook?
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Nov.) The further fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 8.1% y/y, in the first two weeks of November was driven by easing non-core price pressures. But core inflation picked up, which will strengthen... 24th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Global recession adds to headwinds facing Lat Am With the global economy headed for recession and commodity prices likely to come off their recent highs, Latin American exports will struggle over the coming quarters. Weakening global growth is also... 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Troubles are probably not over for Brazil’s markets The post-election honeymoon period for Brazil’s financial markets has proven short-lived, and we suspect that the country’s equities, bonds, and currency will remain under pressure in coming months. 21st November 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil spending cap, Lula at COP27, consumer slump? While Brazil’s president-elect Lula reaffirmed his pledge to crack down on illegal deforestation in the Amazon at the COP27 conference this week, his comments on fiscal policy and his transition team... 18th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q3) The 1.2% q/q contraction in Chile’s economy in Q3 was even steeper than expected and we think that the downturn has further to run – our forecasts is for the economy to contract by 1.3% over 2023 as a... 18th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Region slowing Data released over the past month or so suggest that most economies across the region fared well in Q3. GDP growth in Mexico and Colombia came in well above expectations and hard activity data from... 17th November 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Higher interest rates exposing private sector debt risks Higher interest rates and larger private sector debt burdens mean that debt interest service ratios could rise to levels last seen in the 1990s in many EMs next year. This is unlikely to be a major... 17th November 2022 · 18 mins read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q3) The stronger-than-expected 1.6% q/q expansion in Colombia’s GDP in Q3 took output further above its pre-pandemic trend and means that Colombia is on course to be a regional outperformer in 2022. That... 15th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What to make of Petro’s first 100 days in office While Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro initially made a promising start to his tenure, his recent interventionist comments have led to a sharp sell-off in local financial markets. Regaining... 14th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s bad loans, inflation outlook brightening Brazil’s president-elect Lula sent local financial markets into a tailspin late this week after he stressed the need for higher spending, reinforcing our concerns that the country’s public debt... 11th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) 10th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Oct.) The fourth consecutive decline in Brazil’s inflation rate, to 6.5% y/y in October, will be welcomed by policymakers at the central bank. That said, inflation is still well above target and will stay... 10th November 2022 · 2 mins read
