Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Dec.) The second consecutive fall in Mexico’s mid-month inflation, to 7.8% y/y in December, confirms that inflation is now on a downward trajectory. This will allow Banxico to draw its tightening cycle to a... 22nd December 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook 2023 marked by recession and disinflation We continue to expect the world to slip into recession in 2023 as the effects of high inflation and rising interest rates are felt. Our forecasts are below the consensus across the board but... 19th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile’s constitution, hope in Argentina, fear in Brazil The new process to re-write Chile's the constitution will probably lead to a more slim-lined charter, but there are still likely to be major economic implications – notably, higher government spending... 16th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) 15th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The World in 2023: What to watch for in EMs EMs will experience one of the broadest slowdowns in GDP growth in 2023 since the 1990s. China is one of the few places where growth will accelerate next year, but its move away from zero-COVID will... 15th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Peru engulfed in chaos Peru’s newly-inaugurated President Boluarte’s call to bring forward the next general election to 2024 has failed to pacify protesters who took to the streets following the impeachment of President... 14th December 2022 · 11 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Oct.) Mexico’s industrial sector posted a solid 0.4% m/m rise in output in October but the big picture is that industry has stagnated since the middle of this year. And while more timely survey indicators... 12th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly A failed coup d’état, inflation worries, Lula’s fiscal plans The end of Castillo’s chaotic presidency in Peru may bring some near-term relief to investors, but it won’t solve the country’s dysfunctional political system. Political gridlock is here to stay and... 9th December 2022 · 8 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Nov. 2022) The further fall in Brazilian inflation, to 5.9% y/y, last month will help to ease the squeeze on household incomes. But with the prices of many core goods and services still rising rapidly and, more... 9th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov.) Mexico’s headline inflation rate continued to drop back to 7.8% y/y in November but this was driven by weaker non-core inflation; core inflation actually strengthened further. We now expect that... 8th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Policy paralysis here to stay in Peru The impeachment of Peru’s controversial (former) left-wing President Pedro Castillo might bring short-term relief to investors, but it does not solve Peru’s governability issues. With policy paralysis... 8th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s fiscal risks could keep rates higher for longer The statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s meeting yesterday, at which the Selic rate was left at 13.75%, made clear that policymakers are increasingly concerned about fiscal loosening... 8th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Central banks to ease off the brakes as growth slows The recent resilience of economic activity in Latin America will not last and we think that growth will slow by more than most expect in 2023. Having been among the first to tighten monetary policy... 7th December 2022 · 25 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lula’s fiscal plans intensify Brazil’s public debt risks President-elect Lula’s plans to increase spending could raise Brazil’s public debt ratio by an additional 10% of GDP by the end of his presidential term in 2026. And while it seems likely that these... 6th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s vulnerabilities, Peru’s chaos, Venezuelan oil The easing of some US sanctions will give a small boost to Venezuela’s oil output, but it would take much more on the sanctions front – as well as huge investment – to boost oil production... 2nd December 2022 · 8 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Oct.) The better-than-expected 0.3% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in October only partly reversed the falls in output in the previous few months. And surveys suggest that the sector fared much... 2nd December 2022 · 2 mins read
