Latin America Economics Update What China’s re-opening means for Latin America China’s rapid move away from zero-Covid and the resulting rally in commodity prices present upside risks to our GDP forecasts, but we remain of the view that 2023 will be a challenging year for Latin... 26th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan.) The small rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 7.9% y/y, in the first two weeks of January means that there is a growing risk that Banxico delivers a bit more tightening beyond the 25bp... 24th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s hot labour market, Argentine bonds Expectations for inflation and interest rates in Brazil have shifted up on the back of Lula’s fiscal plans, but an equally (if not more) concerning development on this front is the surge in wage... 20th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Commodities Update Lula unlikely to herald new era for biofuels The election of left-wing candidate Lula for a third term as Brazil’s president is unlikely to accelerate Petrobras’ sluggish shift towards large scale biofuel production. We expect proposed oil... 18th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The fallout from protests in Peru Widespread unrest across several regions in Peru could make the central bank’s job of reducing above-target inflation even more difficult while also threating to hamper activity in some of the country... 16th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s riots, Peru turmoil, Mexico’s USMCA win Brazil’s financial markets have recovered after an initial drop following the riots in Brasília last Sunday, but we think there are reasons for caution. This is all coming at a time when the economy... 13th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Nov.) Mexico’s industrial sector stagnated in November as higher construction and utilities output offset a slump in manufacturing and mining. More timely survey indicators have continued to hold up well... 11th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Dec. 2022) The higher-than-expected Brazilian inflation reading of 5.8% y/y last month, coming alongside growing fiscal concerns, will give Copom more cause to delay the start of its easing cycle. 10th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Riots add to challenges for Brazil’s markets The storming of Brazil’s congress by protestors on Sunday has been negative for the country’s markets, and we think there are other factors that will drag those markets down further. Drop-Ins – The... 9th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.) Mexico’s headline inflation rate was unchanged at 7.8% y/y in December but policymakers at the central bank will have taken comfort from the fact that core price pressures are finally easing. The... 9th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update First thoughts on the riots in Brasília The implications of the invasion of Brazil’s congress by protestors yesterday are mainly political. But the riots could result in a long-lasting risk premium on the country’s financial assets... 9th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Lula’s first presidential (mis)steps, Colombian inflation The first speeches and actions by Brazil’s president Lula after his inauguration earlier this week reinforce our view that his presidential term will be characterised by higher public spending and a... 6th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Nov.) The 0.1% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in November and the weak surveys for December provide further evidence that the economy is in the midst of a slowdown. But the central bank will... 5th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry: ends 2022 on a weak footing Although the manufacturing PMIs for December picked up in some highly-open EMs in Asia and Central Europe, industry in these countries remains very weak. And the surveys suggest that activity has... 3rd January 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Reflecting on 2022 and looking ahead to 2023 This year has been was a surprisingly positive one for Latin America – growth has exceeded even our once above consensus expectations and has surpassed most other EM regions. But the opposite is... 23rd December 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (December 2022) The Brazilian mid-month inflation figure for December was unchanged from the November full-month figure of 5.9% y/y, which provides an early sign that the big falls in inflation have now happened and... 23rd December 2022 · 2 mins read
