Latin America Economics Focus Strong recovery to give way to a disappointing 2011 A combination of a strong recovery in the US and Asia, the recent pick-up in commodity prices and the resumption of capital inflows should ensure that Latin America’s economy expands at a healthy clip... 20th October 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Policymakers in ‘wait and see’ mode With the economic recovery in Latin America now underway, the majority of Central Banks in the region are in ‘wait and see’ mode as the effects of huge rate cuts earlier this year pass through the... 14th October 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Bubble, bubble toil and trouble? Concerns that super-loose monetary policy in the West will fuel a bubble in emerging market assets are beginning to mount. While we believe that capital flows to Latin America will ease over the... 2nd October 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Inflation still falling despite signs of recovery There are continued signs of recovery in Latin America’s economy. Brazilian GDP expanded by a seasonally-adjusted 1.9% q/q in Q2, while more timely data suggest that Mexico and Chile returned to... 30th September 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Stronger growth won’t bring forward rate hikes With policymakers throughout the region now signalling that rates have troughed, attention has turned to the timing of rate hikes in 2010. We have revised up our growth forecasts for next year, but... 18th September 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What’s really happening to Argentine inflation? An alternative measure of Argentine inflation constructed from provincial level data suggests that inflation is actually running at around 11%, well above the current official INDEC figure of 5.9%. 15th September 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack The rocky road to recovery Although there is mounting evidence that some economies in the region – notably Brazil – have returned to positive growth, others remain mired in recession. Mexico and Chile contracted once again in... 27th August 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets too quick to price in rate hikes Following the last round of interest rate decisions, policymakers throughout Latin America signalled a pause in the easing cycle. We would not rule out further rate cuts later this year as the pace of... 19th August 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Rates on hold, for now The pace of decline in Latin America’s economy has eased, as the global environment has stabilised and monetary and fiscal stimuli gain traction. As a result, interest rates in Brazil, Mexico... 29th July 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Nearing the bottom, but recovery set to disappoint (Q3 09) The good news is that Latin America’s economy appears close to bottoming out, with a sustained recovery now possible by the turn of the year. The bad news is that the pace of recovery is likely to... 22nd July 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Don’t believe the data, Argentina is in deep recession While official data suggest that GDP grew by 2.6% y/y in Q1, our Argentina Activity Indicator suggests the economy actually contracted at an annual pace of 7.8%. We think GDP will shrink by 8% this... 14th July 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Nearing the bottom Recent comments from policymakers suggest that, while growth concerns continue to dominate, interest rates are nearing their bottom. Accordingly, attention is starting to turn to when rates might be... 6th July 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Recovery set to disappoint While Latin America is no longer in freefall, any evidence of ‘green shoots’ remains largely confined to Brazil and Chile and appear to owe much to a pick-up in commodity prices that is unlikely to be... 25th June 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Further cuts likely, but pace of easing set to slow While Latin America’s economy is no longer in freefall, growth concerns continue to dominate policymakers’ agenda. Accordingly, further cuts in interest rates look inevitable. We are sticking to our... 5th June 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How can Venezuela cope with the fall in oil revenues? The decision of Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez to nationalise more than 60 firms last month, including a Spanish bank, is a clear response to the effect that the collapse of oil prices has had on... 4th June 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America slides into recession Q1 GDP data released so far confirm that Latin America is sliding into recession. Chile, Peru and Mexico all posted sharp falls in output compared with the final quarter of last year. Admittedly... 28th May 2009 · 1 min read
