Latin America Economics Update Outlook for Peru still good, but policy challenges mounting Peruvian GDP growth slowed in Q3, but the outlook remains good. The key challenge for policymakers will be to channel an influx of foreign capital into productive capacity and prevent overheating. By... 26th November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian cabinet beginning to take shape It has been rumoured in the Brazilian press that Henrique Meirelles will step down as Governor of the central bank (BCB) next year, but that Finance Minister, Guido Mantega, will retain his post under... 23rd November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico still lagging behind the rest of the region Third quarter GDP data from Mexico were weaker than even we had expected. The economy will probably expand by an eye-catching 5% over the course of this year as a whole, but this has been flattered by... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil Q3 growth to disappoint After surprising on the upside in Q2, Brazilian GDP growth appears to have slowed to a paltry 0.3% q/q in the third quarter. The good news is that growth looks likely to accelerate once again in Q4... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean economy completes its recovery The Chilean economy has recovered the loss in output stemming from February’s earthquake and is on track to grow by 5.5% both this year and next. By contrast, the outlook for Venezuela remains bleak. 18th November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican budget papers over the cracks... again Earlier this week Mexico’s Congress passed the 2011 budget. On the face of it, the planned headline deficit of 0.5% of GDP is small – particularly when compared to the huge budget shortfalls that are... 18th November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rate hikes to remain gradual in Chile The Central Bank of Chile (CBC) hiked interest rates by 25bps to 3.0% last night. The strength of the peso means that rate hikes are likely to remain gradual over the coming months. Accordingly... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Equity markets: boom, bubble, bust? The rally in Latin American equities over the past couple of months has left valuations in most countries looking stretched. Stock markets in the region remain vulnerable to a drop in commodity prices... 15th November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico's engine of growth appears to have stalled Mexican manufacturing, which has so far been the key driver of the economic recovery, appears to have stalled. With demand in key export markets – notably the US – likely to remain extremely sluggish... 11th November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Will the next big move in interest rates be down? Policymakers in some countries have raised the prospect that interest rates may be cut in response to recent rapid currency appreciation. But while we would not dismiss the possibility altogether –... 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Inflation being driven by rising food prices... for now The raft of data released over the past day or so show that inflation across Latin America is accelerating. For now, the pick-up has been driven by food prices. But with growth set to remain strong in... 9th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Emerging markets will not rescue the rest of the world Emerging market economies will continue to grow rapidly over the next few years. But with current account surpluses in most of Asia and among oil producers likely to remain high, this will not be of... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Emerging markets will not rescue the rest of the world Emerging market economies will continue to grow rapidly over the next few years. But with current account surpluses in most of Asia and among oil producers likely to remain high, this will not be of... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian growth looking increasingly unbalanced Brazilian industry is well and truly stuck in a rut, due in part to the recent strength of the real. Continued growth in the consumer-facing sectors should keep the recovery from stalling but at the... 4th November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: Early warning signs of higher inflation in 2011 The outlook for inflation in Peru is deteriorating but the policy response is not straightforward. Interest rate hikes would only serve to increase speculative inflows of ‘hot money’, while fiscal... 4th November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America's impossible trinity The so-called ‘impossible trinity’ suggests that the only way that governments in Latin America can resist further currency appreciation is to either impose strict capital controls or align monetary... 3rd November 2010 · 1 min read
