Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Outlook improving, but still lagging behind We are revising up our forecast for Mexican GDP growth this year. With consumer demand recovering more strongly than we had originally anticipated and the neighbouring US economy set to receive a... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Three challenges for 2011 Policymakers in the region will face three challenges this year: keeping inflation under control, preventing asset price bubbles from building and managing currency appreciation. All are consequences... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peruvian rates heading to 4.5% Last night, the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) unexpectedly hiked interest rates by 25bps to 3.25%. With the economy set to grow by 6% this year and the outlook for inflation deteriorating, we... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First thoughts on Dilma's first week Although it is still very early days, Brazil’s new president, Dilma Rousseff, has made tackling the recent pick-up in inflation an immediate priority. But with cuts in public spending now looking... 5th January 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile joins the 'currency war' The Central Bank of Chile (CBC) will begin intervening in the currency market tomorrow in a bid to weaken the peso. But while the peso has fallen by 5% against the dollar today, history suggests that... 4th January 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What will 2011 hold for emerging markets? We expect growth in emerging economies to stay strong in 2011 and, generally speaking, the major challenge facing policymakers will be to ensure that inflation remains contained and that capital... 22nd December 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth to stay strong in 2011 but imbalances will widen The outlook for Latin America in 2011 is, on the whole, pretty good. We expect almost all countries in the region to grow at around their potential rates next year. But while there are few concerns... 21st December 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina slows in Q3, but overheating still the big threat Official GDP data continue to overstate growth in Argentina but there is still no doubt that the economy has experienced an impressive v-shaped recovery. The problem is that growth has been fuelled by... 20th December 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean rates edge higher but future pace of tightening will slow The Central Bank of Chile (CBC) hiked interest rates by 25bps to 3.25% last night, as expected. But the tone of the accompanying statement was less hawkish than in previous months, reinforcing our... 17th December 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Could the next move in Brazilian rates be down? The incoming administration in Brazil has a historic opportunity to re-balance the policy mix in favour of tighter fiscal policy and looser monetary policy (and a weaker currency). What’s more, there... 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Outlook good but testing times lie ahead The outlook for Latin America remains good and, while the developed world will struggle to grow by 2% next year, we expect the region as a whole to grow by 4%. Brazil, Chile, Peru and Colombia will... 14th December 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peruvian rates on hold as currency concerns persist Last night, the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) held interest rates at 3.0% for the third consecutive month. Even though the outlook for inflation is deteriorating, currency concerns are likely to... 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil slows in Q3, but should bounce in Q4 The slowdown in Brazilian GDP growth to 0.5% q/q in Q3, from 1.8% q/q in Q2, should be a shortlived blip and the economy appears to have picked up pace once again in Q4. Looking ahead to 2011, the... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian inflation increases, but rates still on hold Brazilian inflation rose to 5.6% y/y in November – well above the Brazilian Central Bank’s (BCB’s) 4.5% target. But the bulk of the pick-up was driven by food prices and with policymakers at the BCB... 8th December 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian industry still lagging behind Although Brazilian industrial production rose in month-on-month terms in October, the sector has essentially stagnated over the past six months thanks in part to the strong real. With the exchange... 2nd December 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currency concerns to temper rate hikes Strong capital inflows continue to create something of a headache for policymakers in Latin America. On the one hand, growth should remain strong over the coming quarters, while the inflation outlook... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
