Latin America Economics Update BCB still in a bind Last night’s decision by the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) to raise interest rates by a smaller-thanexpected 25bps illustrates the bind that policymakers currently find themselves in: how do you tackle... 21st April 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currency wars take a back seat... for now Concerns over rising inflation have displaced fears about speculative capital inflows and excessive currency appreciation at the top of the list of policy priorities. Interest rates look set to rise... 20th April 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Why are Brazilian interest rates so high? One of the questions that we are most frequently asked is why are Brazilian interest rates so high? We think that the answer lies in the fact that fiscal policy is too loose and, more generally, that... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean rates to continue rising The Central Bank of Chile (CBC) hiked interest rates by 50bps to 4.5% last night. With the near-term outlook for growth still very good and inflation likely to top 5% in Q4, further policy tightening... 13th April 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: Humala win means markets set for rollercoaster ride It appears that the Presidential election in Peru is heading for a second round of voting between Ollanta Humala and Keiko Fujimori on 5th June. While a victory for Ms. Fujimori would perhaps be the... 11th April 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update President Rousseff heads to Beijing President Rousseff's trip to Beijing this week is likely to produce a welter of statistics illustrating how both countries have benefitted from each other's respective development in recent years. But... 11th April 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Nudging up our forecast for Peruvian rates The fact that the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) raised interest rates by 25bps last night, rather than the 50bps that had seemed possible, suggests that policymakers will continue to tighten... 8th April 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Still no sign of a ceasefire in Brazil's 'currency war' If recent evidence is anything to go by, Brazil’s latest effort to stem the rise in the real is unlikely to have a lasting impact on the markets. While rising inflation should mean that the... 7th April 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Taking stock of Argentina's inflation problem The IMF is in Buenos Aires this week on its second technical mission to assist the development of a new inflation index. It is difficult to accurately assess the starting point for discussions, but... 6th April 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican manufacturers buoyed by demand from the US The increase in the Mexican IMEF manufacturing index last month suggests that the industrial sector has continued to benefit from stronger demand in the US. But while the Mexican industrial sector... 5th April 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: 'Two-speed' growth concerns have not gone away The sharp jump in Brazilian industrial production in February, coupled with the rise in the March’s trade surplus, should help to ease concerns about the unbalanced nature of recent growth and will no... 1st April 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Commodity price spike adds fuel to the inflation fire The recent spike in commodity prices is a double edged sword for Latin America. Given that most countries are net commodity exporters, there will be some boost to growth. But at the same time, higher... 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peruvian markets fall as election race takes unexpected twist Presidential election races in Peru have a history of being unpredictable. What initially seemed to be a three-way battle to succeed the outgoing Alan Garcia, now appears to be a five-way tussle ahead... 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Inflation spike has further to run The recent spike in global commodity prices is a much bigger problem for policymakers in Latin America than it is for policymakers in the developed world. This is for two reasons. First, food and... 25th March 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Nudging up our forecast for Colombian rates We are nudging up our end-year forecast for Colombian interest rates to 4.5% (from 4.0%) in response to the recent spike in global commodity prices. 21st March 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Is BANXICO preparing to hike interest rates? The minutes from this month’s interest rate setting meeting in Mexico, released earlier today, were unambiguously hawkish. But while the chances of an interest rate rise in the next few months have... 18th March 2011 · 1 min read
