Latin America Economics Update Humala wins Peruvian presidential election Ollanta Humala, the left-wing candidate, appears to have triumphed in yesterday’s Peruvian presidential election. With investors concerned that he will now set about unpicking market-friendly economic... 6th June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil GDP growth to remain unbalanced Although Brazilian GDP growth was around its potential rate of 4-5% y/y in Q1, underlying concerns about imbalances remain. With domestic demand driving growth and inflation likely to have exceeded... 3rd June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian industry still feeling the strain of a strong real While Brazil’s industrial sector appears to have made a decent contribution to growth in Q1, it seems that it will be a drag in Q2 and perhaps beyond. Manufacturers are being squeezed by the ongoing... 1st June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian rates edge higher The Central Bank of Colombia (BANREP) hiked interest rates by 25bps to 4.0% last night. With domestic demand still driving strong economic growth and inflation likely to peak higher than policymakers... 31st May 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Domestic demand drives decent Q1 growth First quarter GDP data released over the past month confirm what we already knew – most countries in Latin America experienced a strong start to 2011. The problem, however, is that growth is still... 31st May 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican rates to stay on hold As expected, the Central Bank of Mexico (BANXICO) held interest rates at 4.5% this afternoon. Rising food and energy inflation will test the nerve of policymakers over the coming months, but with core... 27th May 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Domestic demand set to drive growth The growth outlook for Latin America remains good. GDP growth is likely to slow a little over the coming quarters as external demand weakens and commodity prices come off of the boil, but the domestic... 26th May 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rates to edge higher but peak by Q4 Concerns over rising inflation have displaced fears about speculative capital inflows and excessive currency appreciation at the top of the list of policy priorities. Interest rates look set to rise... 23rd May 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican Q1 GDP disappoints The pick-up in annual GDP growth in Mexico in Q1 masks the fact that in q/q terms the economy slowed fairly sharply. With the current pace of manufacturing growth set to ease later in the year as... 19th May 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Q1 growth bolstered by spike in commodity prices The spike in commodity prices in Q1 supported strong growth in both Chile and Venezuela. But while Chilean policymakers are well placed to deal with any fall in commodity prices next year, Venezuelan... 18th May 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peruvian economy still growing at a red-hot pace March’s activity data indicate that the Peruvian economy continued to grow at a red-hot pace in Q1 and that it is on course to expand by around 7% this year. 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Further tightening to come in Chile & Peru Last night’s decision to raise Chilean interest rates by 50bps to 5% surprised the markets but was in line with our forecast. By contrast, the decision to raise Peruvian interest rates by 25bps was... 13th May 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rising inflation to test BANXICO's nerve The pick-up in Mexican inflation last month was due almost entirely to a rise in food prices. By contrast, core inflation remains more subdued. The lagged effects of higher global commodity prices are... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian industry still facing an uphill struggle Brazilian industrial production expanded at its fastest pace in a year in Q1 but the outlook for Q2 and beyond is less promising. The bigger picture remains that Brazilian growth is still being driven... 4th May 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil's experience suggests that Peruvian equities could rally Peruvian markets have been hammered since Ollanta Humala, the left-wing candidate, won the first round of the Presidential election last month. There are several parallels to Brazil’s experience... 3rd May 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Rising inflation pushes 'currency wars' to the backburner The past month has brought further evidence of rising inflation in Latin America. For the most part, this is still being driven by higher food and energy prices, which in turn are a reflection of the... 27th April 2011 · 1 min read
