Latin America Economics Update Peruvian rates on hold as policymakers await Humala The Central Bank of Peru (BCRP) held interest rates at 4.25% for the second consecutive month last night. With investment spending and inflation set to accelerate later this year, we continue to... 9th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: hard landing on the horizon Growth in Argentina has shown few signs of slowing in 2011 and we remain concerned about overheating and a hard landing further ahead. Excessively loose policy continues to fuel booming domestic... 8th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fresh controls unlikely to signal end of Brazil’s ‘currency war’ News that Brazil is planning a range of new measures to stem the rise in the real hit the currency yesterday but any such action is unlikely to have a lasting impact. 7th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: still no rush to tighten June’s IMEF surveys suggest that the Mexican economy picked up a little pace in the second quarter of this year. Nonetheless, growth remains sluggish compared to the rest of the region and with the US... 6th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian industry still struggling to keep up The sharp rise in Brazilian industrial production in May largely reflects a rebound from the drop in output seen in April. The sector has broadly stagnated over the past couple of months and the fall... 2nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Capital flows to emerging markets: an accident waiting to happen? Fears of a widespread bubble in emerging markets look overdone, but there are growing signs that rapid capital inflows are stoking problems in several countries. We think the biggest risks lie in... 2nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Will emerging markets outperform again? The relative valuations of emerging market equities and bonds are no longer as attractive as they have been in the past. But the fears of overheating and hard landings that have held many back so far... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Markets continue to struggle Financial markets across Latin America have had a fairly torrid time over the past month or so. Fears of a renewed global slowdown and a subsequent drop in commodity prices, along with worries about... 30th June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Q1 GDP leaves Colombian policymakers with more work to do Data showing that the Colombian GDP grew at close to 8% annualised in the first quarter of this year, despite the impact of the heaviest rains in three decades, adds to recent evidence that the... 24th June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Worrying signs from Brazil's current account The fact Brazil is spending its windfall from higher commodity prices – plus more – is good news for the global economy, but carries significant risks for the country itself. In particular, it means... 23rd June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates still have further to rise The Central Bank of Colombia (BANREP) hiked interest rates by 25bps to 4.25% on Friday night. Although policymakers softened their tone from previous meetings, we still expect rising inflation to... 21st June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Food price shock still has a little further to run Central bankers – and some in the markets – appear increasingly hopeful that the recent spike in food price inflation, which has driven headline inflation above its target in pretty much every country... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean interest rates close to peaking The Central Bank of Chile (CBC) raised interest rates by 25bps to 5.25% last night but signalled that, while more hikes are likely over the coming months, we are now approaching the end of the current... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: Rates on hold as the dust settles from Humala's victory The Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) unexpectedly held interest rates at 4.25% last night. Nonetheless, if it emerges over the coming weeks that President-elect, Ollanta Humala, will broadly... 11th June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Interest rates hiked, BCB signals more to come The Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) hiked interest rates by 25bps to 12.25% last night. With inflation, which exceeded the Bank’s target range last month, set to rise further, additional increases are... 9th June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Above-target inflation strengthens the case for a rate hike Brazilian inflation rose above the upper band of the Central Bank’s (BCB’s) 4.5±2% target range in May. Inflation is likely to remain above target until the second half of next year. Accordingly... 7th June 2011 · 1 min read
