Latin America Economics Update Market mayhem underlines downside risks to growth The slump in financial markets across Latin America means that valuations now look fairly cheap. But while this could lead to a rally in equities once the panic of the past few days subsides, the... 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s slowing inflation makes another pause probable Slowing inflation in Chile raises the probability of a second successive pause at this month’s monetary policy meeting. What’s more, a weakening external backdrop will make policymakers more reluctant... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Are emerging markets immune? Despite benefiting from generally better fundamentals, no emerging market (EM) is immune from the deepening problems in the US and Europe. Growth everywhere is likely to slow over the next year and... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican IMEF survey points to weak growth Mexico became the latest country to release a disappointing manufacturing survey last night. Weak industrial activity, coupled with sluggish growth in the service sector and the ongoing problems in... 5th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: attention back on the real The slump in Brazilian industrial production in June tips the balance in favour of interest rates being left unchanged (rather than hiked) later this month, and suggests that the tightening cycle has... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian industry still feeling the squeeze A further drop in the PMI manufacturing survey last month suggests that the outlook for Brazilian industry has continued to weaken. Relentless appreciation of the real is squeezing the tradable sector... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates close to peaking The Central Bank of Colombia (BANREP) raised interest rates by 25bps to 4.5% late on Friday night. Strong activity data and rising inflation may prompt some further hikes in the very near term. But... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador: At the mercy of oil prices Fiscal profligacy and a lack of prudence in managing commodity revenues have left Ecuador highly exposed to a downturn in global oil prices. Limited financing options are likely to turn up the heat on... 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Is Latin America wasting its commodities windfall? The fact that Latin America is spending its windfall from higher commodity prices is good news for the global economy, but carries significant risks for the region itself. In the near term the big... 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Interest rates close to peaking Policymakers in most of Latin America’s inflation-targeting countries have begun to signal an end to the current cycle of monetary tightening. In the very near term, we still expect the combination of... 28th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update The next big move in Brazilian rates will be down The Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) hiked interest rates by 25bps to 12.50% last night. The tone of the accompanying statement suggests that rates may now have peaked, although we wouldn’t rule out... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian rebalancing has further to run On the face of it, there is early hope that the Colombian economy has begun to rebalance away from domestic demand-led and towards export-led manufacturing growth. But with the exchange rate still... 21st July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s economy in better shape than current debate suggests There has been a growing debate in recent weeks over the extent to which Peru’s economy has slowed, with some commentators foretelling a collapse in growth. A closer inspection of the latest data... 20th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rates should peak this year The recent spike in food inflation has a little further to run and, in most economies, core inflation pressures are building. But even so we still expect headline inflation to start to fall in pretty... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: interest rates pause for breath The Central Bank of Chile (CBC) as expected held interest rates at 5.25% last night. Strong domestic conditions and above-target inflation make further increases likely, but we are nearing the end of... 16th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: credit where credit’s due? The debate about whether or not Brazil is in the midst of a consumer credit bubble has reached fever pitch over the past few days. Our view is that the current pace of credit growth is unsustainable... 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
