Latin America Economics Update Worrying signs from Brazil's current account (again) Today’s current account data from Brazil provide further evidence that growth in Latin America’s largest economy is slowing sharply. 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fernández victory sets Argentina up for a hard landing Argentina’s incumbent president, Cristina Fernández, eased to victory in yesterday’s Presidential Election as was widely expected. We do not foresee any material changes to the government’s policy... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More to follow Brazil’s lead Brazil’s decision to continue cutting interest rates despite the fact that inflation is running at a five-year high remains as controversial as ever. Nonetheless, on balance we think that the central... 22nd October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina set to re-elect Cristina, but what next? Opinion polls suggest that Cristina Fernández will easily secure a second term in this weekend’s Presidential Election. But what might the next few years hold for Argentina’s economy? 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Sovereign Debt: are the emerging markets immune? Emerging markets are not immune from the deepening debt crisis in the developed world, but most are well-placed to deal with the fallout. China faces a difficult structural transition of its own but... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil rate cuts not as risky as most assume Although last night’s cut in Brazilian interest rates was well anticipated and fully priced into the market, the decision will add to widespread concerns that policymakers have fallen behind the curve... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Growing risk of another recession We expect growth to be very low or negative in most advanced economies next year. The euro-zone is already heading for recession, and if its public debt and banking crisis is not contained, the rest... 20th October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s currencies still look overvalued Despite a sell-off over the past couple of months, various measures suggest that Latin America’s currencies – with the exception of the Mexican peso – are still stronger than fundamentals might... 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: rate cuts expected from Q1 2012 Chile’s central bank (CBC) kept interest rates unchanged at 5.25% last night for a fourth straight month. We expect cuts from Q1 next year as global growth slows and food and energy price pressures... 15th October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican equity market highlights the risk of recession With the Mexican equity market registering three consecutive quarter-on-quarter falls over the course of 2011, the Bolsa may be pointing to a dreaded ‘double-dip’ recession. 13th October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currency depreciation unlikely to delay interest rate cuts for long We doubt that the recent sell-off of currencies in Latin America will cause inflation to rise significantly over the coming months. Indeed, with economic activity set to slow over the coming months... 13th October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s budget expansion is built on solid foundations Chile’s 2012 draft budget sets out a 5% increase in public spending with no offsetting rise in taxes. On first inspection we would caution that some of the assumptions look to be too optimistic... 7th October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian inflation has probably peaked Data released later this week are likely to show another pick-up in Brazilian inflation and will no doubt lead to fresh criticism of the decision to cut interest rates at August’s COPOM meeting. But... 7th October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican IMEF surveys point to weak Q3 The further deterioration in last month’s Mexican IMEF surveys adds to the evidence that the economy struggled in Q3. Indeed, despite the apparent resilience in the neighbouring US economy, Mexican... 5th October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil industry sliding into recession This afternoon’s PMI survey data from Brazil suggest that the industrial sector is sliding into recession. In this context, we believe that the recent decision by the central bank (BCB) to cut... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Uruguay: rates have peaked, cuts to follow in 2012 The Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.0% last night as the board weighed downside risks to growth against stubbornly high inflation. We believe that the BCU... 1st October 2011 · 1 min read
