Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Retail strength unlikely to offset industrial weakness Brazilian retail sales grew by far more than expected in November. But the strong performance is unlikely to have prevented the economy from slipping into a mild recession in the second half of last... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: Devaluation may be delayed until after elections After the Venezuelan government devalued the official exchange rate peg against the dollar in January of both 2010 and 2011, speculation has been mounting that it will do so again soon. But while... 10th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Food prices drive Mexican inflation higher While Mexican inflation has risen in recent months, the increase appears to have been due to higher food prices and not the sharp depreciation of the peso. With the economy set to slow this year, and... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador feels the squeeze from lower oil prices Ecuador’s oil-dependent economy showed clear signs of slowing in Q3 2011 as crude prices fell. A sizeable current account deficit and limited external financing options make the dollarised economy... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil meets inflation target by the skin of its teeth Perhaps a little against the odds, the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) just about met its inflation target last year as headline inflation slowed to 6.5% in December. Although it may be sticky, inflation... 6th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian industry remains under the cosh While Brazilian industry finally returned to growth in November, we doubt that the increase will mark the beginning of a sustained pick-up in industrial activity. Indeed, the relatively weak outlook... 5th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile to cut rates as economic activity cools A minor upturn in Chile’s November economic activity does little to alter the overall trend towards slower growth heading into 2012. With external demand set to deteriorate further over the course of... 5th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Resilience in the Mexican economy unlikely to last The latest survey data suggest that the Mexican economy ended 2011 in decent shape. But while the economy may have expanded by about 4.0% last year, we continue to think that this year will be much... 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Uruguay better placed to weather slowdown than Argentina Uruguay and Argentina both delivered impressive growth in Q3. Nevertheless, while they will both inevitably suffer over the coming quarters as the world economy slows, the key difference is that... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Policy set to ease across the region in 2012 Growth concerns will increasingly dominate Latin American policymakers’ agendas as we move into 2012. With many of the world’s advanced economies headed towards recession, and China’s economy... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Q3 probably as good as it gets for Colombia The Colombian economy has outperformed much of the region in recent quarters and is on track to expand by 5.5% this year. But while it should continue to do relatively well next year, it seems... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth concerns to dominate in first half of 2012 The past month has brought yet more evidence that Brazil’s economy has come rapidly off the boil. Indeed, it seems likely that the country may now, in technical terms at least, be in recession. For... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: next in the region to commence rate cuts? Chile’s central bank (CBC) kept interest rates at 5.25% last night. With the euro-zone debt crisis set to escalate in 2012, the CBC could be the next central bank in Latin America to commence rate... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Mexico: Fiesta or siesta? The looming downturn in the US next year means that Mexican growth will slow in the run-up to July’s presidential elections. The task of raising economic performance therefore looks set to dominate... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How would a crisis in Europe hit Latin American banks? 8th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Material changes to the “model” still seem unlikely Recent signs of a more orthodox approach to policymaking in Argentina are encouraging. But there is still no decisive evidence of a shift away from the prevailing economic “model”. Whatever the... 8th December 2011 · 1 min read
