Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates still likely to fall this year The Central Bank of Colombia (BANREP) last night surprised the market once again by hiking interest rates by 25bps to 5.0%. But while this latest decision has cast some doubt over view on interest... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s two-speed economy likely to struggle in 2012 Growing imbalances in the drivers of Chilean growth leave the economy vulnerable to a deterioration of its terms of trade, particularly via falling metals prices, over the year ahead. With this in... 30th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: time to face the ugly truth on inflation? The IMF’s forthcoming consultation with Argentina on a new inflation methodology seems unlikely to succeed where previous missions have failed. But with balance of payments strains growing, the allure... 27th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack A flying start, but can it last? Financial markets in Latin America have made a flying start to 2012 following a recovery in global risk appetite and an improvement in the incoming economic data. Nonetheless, we would caution against... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Savings hold the key to dealing with falling commodity prices The recent rebound in commodity prices has eased concerns about growth outlook for Latin America. But the key point remains that the windfall from high prices has been spent, rather than saved... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth prospects - where we differ from consensus As the IMF released its latest forecasts yesterday and we published our Global Economic Outlook last week, this seems a good time to take stock of how our forecasts compare with others. Overall... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s Humala makes a solid start; bigger challenges ahead Initial fears that the election of Ollanta Humala would mark a departure from the orthodox economic policies of his predecessor, Alan García, have proven to be wide of the mark. Even so, satisfying... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Market implications of an EMU break-up Risky asset markets have generally made a bright start to 2012. But our central scenario envisages a break-up of EMU this year initially involving Greece’s departure, an outcome that would presumably... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian growth easing, not overheating Following break-neck Q3 GDP growth in Colombia, there have been some concerns that the economy is overheating. But the recent activity data suggest that the pace of growth is now easing, while... 20th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Will China pull the rug from under Latin America? This is the first edition of our new monthly publication Latin America Watch. This will analyse major talking points in the region and preview key data and events. In this issue we look at the impact... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Few surprises as BCB signals further easing to come There were few surprises from Brazilian policymakers last night as they cut interest rates by 50bps to 10.50% and signalled further easing to come. Despite tentative signs that the economy has picked... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: further policy stimulus on the cards as growth eases Data released today provided further evidence of a moderation in Peru’s economic activity in late-2011. Going forward, growth is likely to slow further, but ample space for policy stimulus will... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Farewell to the euro The euro-zone is slipping into a recession which we expect to be deep and prolonged and to result in the break-up of the single currency area. This will be a major drag on other European economies... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina on a road to nowhere with protectionist policies Although a flurry of protectionist policies may provide some temporary relief from strains in Argentina’s balance of payments, these measures will ultimately prove self-defeating. The problem is that... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile cuts interest rates as growth cools The Central Bank of Chile (CBC) trimmed its benchmark interest rate by 25bps to 5.0% last night following recent signs of a slowdown in growth. By contrast, Peru’s strong consumer activity and rising... 13th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Retail strength unlikely to offset industrial weakness Brazilian retail sales grew by far more than expected in November. But the strong performance is unlikely to have prevented the economy from slipping into a mild recession in the second half of last... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
