Latin America Economics Update Mexican interest rates still more likely to fall than rise Recent data suggest that Mexico made a decent start to Q1. However, growth remains vulnerable to a deterioration in external conditions, particularly in the US, and while we are more upbeat than a few... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina's economy looks to have come off the boil in Q4 Evidence of a deceleration of economic growth in Q4 2011 may signal the start of a more protracted slowdown in Argentina. Without a concerted near-term tightening of policy, it seems unlikely that a... 17th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How exposed are equity markets to investor risk aversion? Whereas all of Latin America’s equity markets would be hit by a renewed bout of investor risk aversion, some appear to be more vulnerable than others. Specifically, Brazilian, Argentine and Mexican... 17th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of Brazil's budget cuts Despite cutting some R$55bn in spending from its 2012 budget, Brazil’s government may still fall short of its fiscal target for this year. That would not necessarily be a disaster from the point of... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How well will growth in emerging economies hold up? Emerging Asia and Latin America should continue to grow relatively fast even if the euro-zone slides into prolonged recession, as long as the US avoids the same fate. The outlook for emerging Europe... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update QE3 would be a damp squib for Lat Am markets Hopes are rising that further unconventional monetary easing by Western central banks – be it a third round of quantitative easing (QE) by the Fed, or Long Term Refinancing Operations (LTROs) by the... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rates on hold as Chile’s economy regains some momentum Chile’s central bank (CBC) kept interest rates unchanged at 5.0% last night in response to a small rebound in domestic economic activity and a temporary recovery in global market sentiment. The latest... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Making sense of Latin America’s inflation conundrum Recent data have given mixed messages on the outlook for inflation in Latin America. On the one hand, inflation seems to be firmly on a downward path in Brazil and Peru. Yet the drop in Chilean... 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What can emerging economies do to help the rest of the world? Emerging economies will continue growing rapidly this year and next while, despite a strong start to the year, we expect advanced economies to manage sub-trend growth, at best. But rapid growth in... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Will Chavez get stuck in the MUD? The opposition coalition in Venezuela (MUD) has selected Henrique Capriles Radonski to face Hugo Chavez in October’s presidential election. While the outcome of the vote is too close to call at this... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: central bank may pause before cutting rates again Signs that Chile’s economy regained some momentum heading into 2012 should prompt the central bank (CBC) to keep rates on hold at this month’s meeting. Nevertheless, if the bright start to the year in... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Mexican banks can weather the euro-zone storm The close links between Mexican banks and the euro-zone have raised fears that the break-up of the monetary union will trigger a banking crisis in Mexico. But while we would caution against dismissing... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Euro-crisis: how big is the threat of financial contagion for EMs? The economies of Asia and Latin America should be able to weather any financial contagion stemming from Europe’s debt crisis. But the economies of emerging Europe – notably Hungary, Turkey and the... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fiscal reforms still key to preventing excessive FX appreciation On past form at least, the latest set of measures announced by Colombia and Brazil to curb currency strength are unlikely to have a lasting impact on foreign exchange markets. Instead, fiscal reforms... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Uruguay: threat of overheating to recede this year Although symptoms of overheating remain evident in Uruguay, these concerns should take a back seat in 2012 as inflationary pressures fade and demand from Brazil and Argentina slows. The key point is... 3rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian industry finding its feet The rise in January’s manufacturing PMI adds to recent evidence that Brazil’s economy has turned the corner. We expect interest rates to be lowered by a further 100bps to 9.5% over the next couple of... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
