Latin America Economics Update Warning signs from the Colombian capital account We remain fundamentally upbeat on the outlook for the Colombian economy. Nonetheless, the recent pick-up in capital inflows has seen a shift away from long-term flows and towards more volatile short... 15th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico set for period of steady, yet unspectacular, growth The outlook for Mexican economy has brightened in recent months. Demand from the US is strengthening, while there are signs that domestic activity is recovering. But even so, we doubt that the current... 13th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mercosur protectionism may have a silver lining for Uruguay Uruguay is undoubtedly one of the major losers from a lurch towards protectionism within the Mercosur block. To the extent that there is a silver lining, however, it is that in the near-term these... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peruvian inflation poised to fall further in coming months Peru’s central bank (BCRP) kept interest rates on hold at 4.25% last night, maintaining a resolutely neutral monetary policy bias. Nevertheless, with inflation set to fall back more sharply in the... 9th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian rates heading back to 2009 low The decision by the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts reflects mounting concerns among policymakers about the sustainability of Brazil’s “twin-speed” growth... 8th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico Election Watch: Presidential race starting to heat up The latest opinion polls suggest that the Mexican presidential election may be closer than expected. Further gains for the left-wing Andrés Manuel López Obrador may spark some turbulence, but in... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Sustained fall in inflation underway Inflation will climb further in most major economies over the coming months, reflecting both higher energy prices and higher food prices. The peaks should still be lower than those in 2008 as long as... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil avoids recession but “two-speed” growth is unsustainable Brazil avoided falling into recession in the fourth quarter of last year by the narrowest of margins, thanks to a renewed pick-up in consumer spending. But while there are signs that growth has... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Capital inflows threaten to destabilise Latin America Large capital inflows to Latin America have resumed in recent months. If we are right in expecting the euro-zone crisis to worsen later this year, then risk appetite is likely to deteriorate and lead... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s industrial recovery at threat from resurgent real The tentative recovery in Brazilian industry is already running into headwinds in the form of a resurgent currency. But while the latest set of measures aimed at stemming the rise in the real are... 1st March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s suspect data puts spotlight back on ‘Kirchnerismo’ Recent headlines questioning the validity of Argentina’s official data tell us little we don’t already know. Nevertheless, the fact remains that government manipulation is widening distortions in the... 1st March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru to remain among the region’s best performers in 2012 Peru’s economy was one of Latin America’s standout performers in 2011, expanding by 7%. Looking ahead, the country’s solid macro fundamentals, combined with ample space for a policy response in the... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Concerns about Brazilian credit growth starting to resurface Having shown signs of slowing in the second half of last year, Brazilian credit growth appears to have picked up again in recent months. But while this should give a boost to overall GDP growth in the... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia hikes rates as imbalances resurface The Central Bank of Colombia (BANREP) increased interest rates by 25bps to 5.25% on Friday night. With concerns about the strength of the peso and unbalanced growth coming back onto the agenda, we... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela facing huge challenges despite bond market rally Venezuelan markets have rallied in recent days on the back of renewed speculation that the President, Hugo Chavez, will not be able to stand in October’s elections. A victory for the Opposition’s... 24th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Signs of a return to “two-speed” growth Activity in much of Latin America appears to have picked up over the past couple of months, following the slowdown seen over the second half of last year. But while worries about the overall pace of... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
