Latin America Economics Update YPF just another scapegoat for failures of Argentine model Rumours that Argentina’s largest energy company, YPF, is on the brink of being nationalised have seen the company’s share price plummet and sovereign risk premia spike over the past few days. Not only... 5th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Price controls are not the answer to Venezuelan inflation On the face of it, news that Venezuelan inflation is falling seems to support President Chavez’s claims that price controls will tame inflation. In reality, though, they are not the long-term solution... 3rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican survey data strong, but rates could still fall this year The latest survey data suggest that the Mexican economy may have expanded by an impressive 1.2% q/q in Q1. Even so, with the risks to growth and inflation to the downside, policymakers have recently... 3rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Better PMI won’t prompt ceasefire in Brazil’s “currency war” The manufacturing PMI survey suggests that after a torrid 2011, Brazilian industry stabilised in the first quarter of this year. But in truth the link between the manufacturing PMI and actual output... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico Election Watch: Will Peña Nieto push through reforms? The Mexican presidential election race formally begins today and the latest polls suggest that the PRI’s Enrique Peña Nieto is likely to triumph in July’s vote. But while Mr. Peña Nieto has identified... 30th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Uruguayan rates on hold as economy begins to cool Uruguay’s Central Bank (BCU) kept interest rates at 8.75% last night but maintained a hawkish tone on inflation. Based on our outlook for growth to slow by more than most anticipate this year... 30th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Markets pause for breath The rebound in financial markets across Latin America since the start of the year has lost some momentum in recent weeks. Having rallied by 10% or so in the first two months of this year, most of the... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Jump in oil prices is a net benefit for Latin America Latin America is one of the few regions to have benefitted from the $25pb jump in oil prices over the past six months or so: higher prices provide a prop to regional growth and, for now at least, the... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine Q4 slowdown is a sign of things to come Official GDP data continue to overstate the health of Argentina’s economy and we estimate that growth slowed to 4.5% y/y in Q4. The current economic model is reaching its limits, and with little... 27th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: New BCRA Charter is a licence to print money The latest changes to Argentina’s Central Bank Charter will pave the way for further monetisation of a deteriorating fiscal balance. As such, any remaining hopes that the Fernández government is about... 23rd March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazil’s “currency war”? Brazil’s so-called “currency war” has lost a little of its momentum in recent days, as the real – like most EM currencies – has weakened. This provides an ideal opportunity to take stock of the recent... 23rd March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Strong Q4 in Colombia, but can it last? Following bumper growth in Colombia last year and a strong start to this year, concerns about overheating are likely to resurface. We remain fundamentally upbeat on the economy and expect a soft... 22nd March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s growth model under the spotlight News that Brazil last year overtook the UK to become the world’s sixth largest economy is further evidence, if any was needed, of the continued rebalancing of global economic power towards the... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Is Chile’s economy already on the mend? Today’s release of Chilean Q4 GDP data confirms that the economic slowdown in late 2011 was not as marked as many had initially feared. What’s more, the most recent monthly indicators suggest a pick... 19th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican interest rates still more likely to fall than rise The Mexican Central Bank (BANXICO) left interest rates on hold at 4.5% this afternoon after the outlook for economy brightened. Rates look set to remain on hold for the time being. But while the... 16th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Bumps in the road The immediate outlook for Latin America has brightened in recent months as fears of a renewed crisis in the developed world have eased. But even so, while the region is likely to outperform most... 15th March 2012 · 1 min read
