Global Markets Outlook Search for safe havens set to resume We think tougher times lie ahead for risky assets. Enthusiasm for equities is likely to be curbed by a turn in the US profit cycle, an absence of additional unconventional monetary stimulus from the... 26th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Inflation has further to fall The decision by Brazil’s central bank earlier this month to cut interest rates once again has raised concerns in some quarters about the outlook for inflation over the rest of this year. As it happens... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook US recovery, European recession We expect world GDP to grow by around 3% both this year and next. The US economy is set to recover steadily but the euro-zone recession will deepen, causing the sovereign debt crisis to flare up again... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine FDI: is there life after YPF? History suggests that the nationalisation of YPF may do little to deter FDI in Argentina’s energy sector. Nevertheless, we suspect that it will have a more significant impact on investment flows into... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico Election Watch: PRI consolidates its lead The latest opinion polls suggest that not only does the PRI’s Enrique Peña Nieto have a healthy lead in the race to July’s presidential election, but that his party may also take control of Congress... 20th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s interest rate floor revisited The decision earlier this week by Brazil’s central bank (BCB) to cut interest rates once again – and signal further easing ahead – has revived talk about a “floor” on interest rates in Latin America’s... 20th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How is growth shaping up in Latin America? It was beginning to feel like somebody had turned the clock back twelve months. With the first quarter of 2012 bringing a renewed sense of calm to global markets and a rebound in activity across the... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Colombia’s credit boom is unsustainable The Colombian credit boom appears to be unsustainable. Lending growth has been excessive, while new loans have been increasingly funded via wholesale foreign funding. We expect tighter macroeconomic... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazilian rates? The decision by the Central Bank of Brazil last night to cut interest rates by 75bps to 9% was widely expected. Instead, the critical issue for investors is whether this marks the end of the current... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile, Peru signal near-term rate change unlikely Both Chile and Peru kept interest rates unchanged in April and signalled that moves in either direction are unlikely in the near-term. Further ahead, if we are right in expecting the global economic... 18th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Credit growth still uncomfortably strong The recent slowdown in Brazilian bank lending highlights the unsustainable nature of rapid credit growth in parts of Latin America. Credit risks are greatest in Argentina and Venezuela, while the... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil returns to (unbalanced) growth Having stagnated over the second half of 2011, the early signs are that Brazil’s economy grew by around 1% q/q in the first quarter of this year. But while Brazil’s return to growth is clearly good... 13th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Balanced growth suggests Mexico will continue to outperform While Brazilian GDP growth has outstripped that of Mexico in recent years, it has been very unbalanced. That has left Mexico better placed to weather any external shocks. As a result, we expect Mexico... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Why Brazil's property boom looks like a bubble There are several reasons why we would have expected to have seen a sharp rise in Brazilian house prices over the past five years. But even so the sheer scale of the recent jump in prices is difficult... 11th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What are Argentina's lessons for the euro-zone? Argentina’s experience after the collapse of the peso ten years ago supports the view that Greece, and perhaps other peripheral economies, would ultimately be better off leaving the euro-zone rather... 10th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean economy not yet out of the woods As the most open and commodity-dependent of the major Latin American economies, Chile benefited from an improvement in global conditions in Q1. The road ahead will not be a smooth one however and, if... 5th April 2012 · 1 min read
