Latin America Economics Update Pre-election spending deepens structural problems in Venezuela The recent sale of debt by the Venezuelan authorities will help to bolster economic growth ahead of October’s presidential election. But the fact that the debt issuance has effectively been monetised... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What should we expect from first quarter GDP in Brazil? We think that first quarter GDP growth in Brazil will be somewhat stronger than the monthly economic activity indicator produced by the central bank (BCB) suggests. But there is no sign yet of a much... 22nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Strong start to the year in Chile unlikely to last The Chilean economy registered strong growth in Q1, but we doubt that the impressive performance can be maintained. With copper prices already down by about 10% so far this month, and likely to fall... 18th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Spanish banking links revisited The direct exposure of Latin American banks to the deepening crisis in Spain is not as great as it seems at first sight. Even so, there are at least three ways in which the region’s banks could be hit... 18th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican economy well placed to weather external shocks Mexican Q1 GDP growth was not only stronger than expected, but the drivers of the increase were broad-based. Although the economy may lose some of its steam over the coming quarters, it is well placed... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update From currency wars to interest rate wars Not content with waging a “currency war” against the rest of the world, Brazil’s government is now doing battle with its own banks over the high interest rates charged on loans to consumers and... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America currencies battered by flight to safety Renewed fears about the future of the euro-zone have sparked a retreat from all risky assets in recent days, and Latin American currencies have been no exception. For now, the risks remain skewed to... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Weaker global economy to expose local vulnerabilities Relative to the rest of the world, at least, the immediate outlook for Latin America remains good. Nonetheless, vulnerabilities are starting to emerge in a number of the region’s economies, which are... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Can Chile get rich off commodities? History indicates that it is very difficult for a country to get rich purely through the extraction of natural resources. In order to meet President Piñera’s target of becoming a developed nation... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Opening up Mexican oil sector could pump growth The emergence of a political consensus in favour of opening up the oil industry in Mexico has increased the likelihood that the winner of July’s presidential election will take steps to increase the... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Counting the cost of Argentina’s trade barriers Protectionist trade controls in Argentina are already taking a toll on growth in neighbouring countries, with Paraguay and Uruguay hardest hit. In the longer-term, however, it may be Argentina that... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican industry to outperform In contrast to most other emerging markets, the Mexican IMEF manufacturing survey rose in April. With the relatively cheap peso maintaining the competitiveness of exports and demand from the US... 3rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian manufacturing suffers a relapse April’s manufacturing PMI survey for Brazil contains little in the way of good news. Not only does the drop in the headline index suggest that industrial output is falling once again, but the forward... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Old concerns re-emerge as Peru’s recovery gains pace An improvement in the global backdrop helped Peru’s economy to gather pace in Q1. This has led to the re-emergence of some familiar concerns over the strength of domestic demand and credit growth... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tweaking our interest rate forecasts We are making some small tweaks to our forecast for interest rates in Latin America. If the global economy weakens later this year, as we expect, it is still likely that most central banks in the... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s economic ‘model’ living on borrowed time Last week’s news that Argentina is to nationalise YPF has helped to deflect attention from further signs that the economy is slowing sharply. A growing dependence on temporary fixes to prop up an... 27th April 2012 · 1 min read
