Latin America Economics Update Argentina's economy shudders to a halt in Q1 The latest data show that the health of Argentina’s economy has gone from bad to worse in recent months. While the official statistics are largely discredited, we estimate that GDP contracted in Q1... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s exports take a turn for the worse A recent drop in regional export growth can be attributed to a number of factors, of which slowing Chinese commodity demand may be the most prominent. We expect export revenues to come under further... 15th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Intervention unlikely to significantly weaken peso Increased intervention by the Colombian authorities in the foreign exchange market may halt the appreciation of the peso, but it is unlikely to significantly weaken it. Instead, a drop in commodity... 14th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How real is the threat of protectionism? Concerns that Latin America might be spiralling towards a new era of protectionism have emerged in 2012. But while it is true that the region as a whole has seen an increase in protectionist trade... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to fall further as euro-zone crisis deepens Headline inflation has dropped this year in most major economies and is likely to come down further as global growth falters, the euro-zone crisis deepens and commodity prices continue to fall. We... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Too soon to sound the all-clear on Colombian credit growth While overall credit growth in Colombia is slowing, consumer lending remains uncomfortably strong. The deepening crisis in Europe will probably prevent policymakers from raising rates over the next... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update LatAm policymakers content to play waiting game on rates Today’s decisions by Peru and Mexico to leave interest rates unchanged support our belief that, in the near-term, most of the region’s policymakers will await clearer evidence on the health of the... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Inflation concerns subsiding in Latin America In line with our forecast, inflation has eased across most of the region in 2012 as the effects of last year’s food price shock work their way out of the annual comparison. We expect this trend to... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil Q1 GDP dragged down by weather-related effects A weather-related collapse in agricultural production is the main reason for Brazil’s desperately weak growth in the first quarter of this year. These effects will be temporary and should reverse over... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico Election Watch: Peso driven by risk appetite not politics The latest opinion poll in Mexico suggests that the left-leaning Andrés Manuel López Obrador has made a late charge ahead of July’s presidential election. That has coincided with a sharp sell-off of... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil interest rates: falling further for longer Last night’s decision by the Central Bank of Brazil to slow the pace of interest rate cuts suggests that we are getting close to the end of the easing cycle. Nonetheless, we continue to expect the... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Is Argentina headed for a fresh currency crisis? Argentina’s ample foreign reserves and tight capital controls mean that the government will not be forced into allowing the peso to devalue sharply in the near-term. That said, the current managed... 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s economy warming up, not yet overheating A strong recovery in investment spending has helped to boost Peru’s economy so far this year. Despite concerns from some quarters about the pace of domestic demand growth, we think that the threat of... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Checking up on our equity market forecasts Our previous analysis, suggesting that Brazilian and Argentine equities would be most vulnerable to a general spike in risk aversion, has been borne out in the recent sell-off. Mexican markets, on the... 25th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack From currency war to currency rout Financial markets across the whole of Latin America have been hammered over the past month by a euro-zone related flight to safety but amid the sell-off the collapse in the Brazilian real stands out... 25th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina edging closer to recession We were one of the first forecasters to predict a recession during the Fernández government’s second term. Even so, the extent of the recent slowdown has been greater than even we had anticipated, and... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
