Latin America Economics Update Spike in agricultural prices unlikely to stoke inflation A sharp jump in some agricultural commodity prices has stoked fears of a renewed spike in inflation in Latin America. But we think that those concerns are misplaced. Indeed, we expect the agricultural... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico Election Watch: Peña Nieto wins but no PRI majority If Mexico’s President-elect, Enrique Peña Nieto, is to achieve 6% GDP growth he will have to press ahead with reforms. However, with the PRI falling short of a majority in Congress, he will need to... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: drifting towards a two-tier peso? Argentina’s tightly managed exchange rate is not compatible with the expansive macro policies that have driven inflation up to double-digit levels. Nonetheless, the authorities seem determined to have... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Limits to ‘two-speed’ growth come into focus The recent data support our belief that Latin America is heading for a period of below-trend economic performance. Imbalances in the drivers of growth have left many countries increasingly exposed to... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s looming credit crunch The current pace of credit growth in Brazil remains unsustainable – and the longer it continues, the bigger the risk of a messy ending further down the line. 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Uruguay: persistent inflation leaves policymakers in a bind Structural rigidities mean that inflation will be slower to fall back in Uruguay than in the rest of the region this year. As a consequence, policymakers have less space to support growth via monetary... 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Industrial slowdown could soon spread to Mexico The latest fall in Brazil’s manufacturing PMI suggests that, despite a sharp drop in the currency over the past three months or so, producers in Latin America’s largest economy are still feeling the... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Case for interest rate cuts is building in Colombia The deterioration in the outlook for Colombia has forced us to review our interest rates forecast. With the economy slowing more abruptly than we had expected, the rate cuts that we had pencilled in... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Strains begin to emerge in Ecuador’s growth model Ecuador’s headline GDP numbers give a somewhat misleading impression of the true health of the economy. A failure to accumulate savings during a run-up in oil prices means that the dollarised economy... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela heading for recession in 2013 as oil prices tumble The recent sharp drop in oil prices spells danger for Venezuela. The government may be able to muster sufficient funds to prop up the economy this year. But if oil prices continue to fall and remain... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Weaker Chinese demand starting to weigh on exports There are growing signs that falling commodity prices and weaker demand from China are starting to take their toll on the economies of Latin America. In those countries that are most dependent on... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: further policy easing expected this year The consensus view that the current strength of domestic demand rules out rate cuts in Chile looks to us to be fundamentally misplaced. Instead, in the absence of fresh rises in metals prices... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico Election Watch: Peña Nieto still in the driving seat Enrique Peña Nieto of the PRI remains on course to register a comfortable victory in Sunday’s Mexican presidential election. But with the PRI now looking unlikely to win a majority in Congress there... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: pushing down our forecasts The fact that our forecasts for Brazilian growth were already at the very bottom of the consensus range means that we have not had to make significant adjustments in light of weaker than expected... 22nd June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian economy slumped in Q1 The Colombian economy seems to have hit a brick wall in Q1. While it is better placed than most in the region to withstand the turbulence from the euro-zone crisis, we are revising down our GDP growth... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Policymakers have space to support growth The authorities in most Latin American countries have space to loosen policy in the event of a sharp slowdown in global economic growth. Indeed, we expect to see policy easing in most economies over... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
