Emerging Markets Economics Update How reliant are EM governments on high commodity prices? A sharp decline in commodity prices would cause the public finances to deteriorate in many emerging market countries, with the loss of revenues greatest in the Middle East and parts of Africa. However... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru keeps rates on hold as currency concerns resurface The Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) kept interest rates at 4.25% last night and is unlikely to make any changes to its benchmark rate until well into 2013. Concerns about the strength of the... 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Emerging market exporters face more tough times ahead Emerging market exports have been hit by a broad slowdown in global demand this year, with the last few months proving especially weak. Given the bleak outlook for the global economy, a meaningful... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil rates on hold to 2014 Last night’s decision to cut Brazilian interest rates by 25bps to a new record low of 7.25% probably marks the end of the current easing cycle. But while most forecasters now expect the authorities to... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are emerging markets losing their competitive edge? Among the major emerging market (EM) regions, we estimate that Latin America has experienced the greatest loss of competitiveness over the past few years. In the medium term, weaker productivity... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil's housing market: slowing but not stalling The surge in Brazilian property prices seen over the past few years appears to be slowing, but the housing market still looks significantly overvalued – perhaps by as much as 30-50%. In this month’s... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Oct.) The Capital Economics Argentina Activity Indicator points to a slight improvement in Argentine growth over the past month or so. Even so, we think that GDP probably contracted by around 1.5% y/y in Q3... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chávez re-election to deepen Venezuela’s economic problems Hugo Chávez’s re-election as President of Venezuela is likely to result in a sharp sell-off in the bond market over the coming days and a 40-50% devaluation of the bolivar before year-end. More... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador's oil-fired boom running out of steam The latest data confirm that Ecuador’s recent commodity boom has faded in 2012. With elections looming early next year, the main risk is that attempts to revive growth via looser fiscal policy will... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Labour market reforms to help Mexican industry to outperform The announcement of labour market reforms in Mexico is a step in the right direction and should help to raise productivity growth over the coming years. That, along with Mexico’s already strong... 5th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How much scope do emerging markets have to loosen policy? Despite recent policy easing by the US Fed and the ECB, we expect global growth will continue to disappoint over the next couple of years. Against this gloomy background, prospects for emerging... 5th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update QE3: big risk or damp squib? There is growing concern among emerging market (EM) policymakers that a third dose of QE from the Fed will stoke hot money inflows to the developing world, and open up a new front in the so-called... 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How far has the inflation outlook deteriorated? As things stand, the spike in global food prices since early June is likely to push up annual inflation in Latin America by around 0.5-1.0%-pts over the next six months or so. But while this is likely... 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market manufacturers still struggling The Bank of Uganda lowered its benchmark interest rate by 200bps to 13.00% today and, while theeasing cycle still has further to run, we think the pace of rate cuts may slow in the months ahead. 2nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rates have further to fall in Colombia The Colombian central bank’s (BANREP) decision to keep interest rates on hold does not necessarily signal the end of the easing cycle, but it does suggest that further cuts may be punctuated by pauses... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Manufacturing PMI adds to signs of a turnaround in Brazil The pick-up in September’s manufacturing PMI adds to recent evidence suggesting that policy stimulus is starting to take effect in Brazil. We suspect that the turnaround in the real economy will... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
