Latin America Economics Update Will Mexico hike interest rates? A series of hawkish comments from Mexican policymakers has fuelled speculation that the central bank may finally be on the cusp of hiking interest rates – having kept them at record lows for the best... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: populist policymaking raises default risk A recent ruling by a US court has raised questions over whether Argentina will be pushed into a fresh debt default. On closer inspection, the issue remains one of willingness to pay rather than... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean growth firmer than September data suggest Chile’s latest economic activity data are not as bad as they first appear. Much of the weakness in retail sales and manufacturing can be put down to the extended independence holidays. That said, we... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Market too hawkish on most EM interest rates in 2013 We expect relatively weak economic growth to keep interest rates in most emerging markets lower than the market currently anticipates next year. The key exceptions are India, where we suspect that... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rate cuts in Colombia dependent upon global weakening The Colombian central bank (BANREP) appears to have signalled that further interest rates cuts are contingent upon a deterioration in the global environment. We think that a deepening of the euro-zone... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Remittances to emerging markets to remain resilient Despite our forecast that global growth will continue to disappoint over the next couple of years, we expect remittances to most emerging markets will remain resilient. This will help drive growth in... 26th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Should we be worried about Argentina’s provincial debt? Fears that the ‘pesofication’ of foreign currency debt by one Argentine province earlier this month will lead to a wave of local government defaults are overdone. Even so, the provinces face a funding... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation set to edge up There are tentative signs that the slowdown in Emerging Market (EM) inflation seen over the past year has bottomed out. We expect EM inflation to quicken over the next six months, mainly due to faster... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Currency concerns start to resurface The strength of local currencies is once again starting to trouble policymakers across Latin America. But while there has been a tendency to blame exchange rate appreciation on a third round of... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Devaluation of Venezuelan bolivar on the cards for 2013 The fact that over half of FX transactions in Venezuela have already been forced onto the black market – where the bolivar trades at much weaker rates – means that the country has already seen a sharp... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why China & Brazil must become more alike Rapid development in Brazil and China has been driven by radically different growth models: whereas Brazil has relied on high levels of consumption, China has depended on high rates of investment. But... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean rates to remain on hold for a few months yet Chilean policymakers kept interest rates on hold last night amid growing concerns over the strength of the peso. The resilience of domestic demand means that rates should stay unchanged in the near... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Growth subdued, but stabilising Emerging market GDP appears to have grown by around 4.5% y/y in Q3 – broadly the same rate as in Q2, but well down on the 8% y/y growth rates seen in 2010. At a regional level, Emerging Asia has... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: fiscal monetisation to drive inflation higher There are some parallels between the money printing being undertaken by Argentina’s central bank (BCRA) and quantitative easing policies in the West. But in contrast to the developed economies... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will higher food prices drive up EM inflation? Headline inflation is set to pick up across most of the emerging world over the next six months, in the wake of global food price increases earlier this year. However, the impact should be short-lived... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian oil rush points to “twin-speed” growth Development of the Colombian oil sector will provide an important prop to economic growth over the coming years, but it is not unambiguously good news, particularly for non-commodity exporters. So... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
