Latin America Economics Update Mexico slowing but still likely to outperform Mexico’s economy slowed by more than expected in Q3 and the latest monthly activity data suggest that growth in Q4 is likely to be even weaker. This should end speculation that the central bank might... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Signs of stabilisation in Q3 Emerging market (EM) GDP growth appears to have stabilised in Q3. Our GDP tracker suggests that output expanded by about 4.0% y/y, down only slightly from 4.2% y/y in Q2. There have been some positive... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru still among region’s fastest growing economies September’s activity data show that Peru remains among the region’s fastest growing economies and it seems that GDP probably grew by 6.5% y/y in Q3. We expect Peru to be one of Latin America’s best... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Nov.) The Capital Economics Argentina Activity Indicator suggests that Argentina’s economy pulled out of recession in Q3 and is on course to register modest growth in Q4. But this turn-around has been... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Few options left to plug holes in Venezuela's balance of payments A combination of quick-fix remedies may enable the Venezuelan economy to withstand the loss of exports revenues if oil prices fall over the next couple of years. But with the authorities running out... 13th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: in search of investment-led growth Data released later this month are likely to show that after having stagnated for much of the past year, Brazil’s economy roared back to life in Q3 on the back of substantial policy stimulus. But... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging market vehicle sales hint at consumer slowdown The latest vehicle sales data suggest that emerging market consumer spending has taken a turn for the worse. Moreover, the fact that vehicle sales growth has outstripped production in Latin America... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: further tightening to come via reserve requirements Last night’s central bank meeting in Peru provided further evidence that policymakers are not considering rate hikes despite vigorous domestic demand and credit growth. Instead, concerns over the... 9th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bank failures reflect previous financial excesses The recent seizure of a handful of small Brazilian banks and a Colombian brokerage underline the extent of financial excesses in parts of the region in recent years. While there may be additional bank... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Export improvement so far limited to Asia There are tentative signs that export performance in some emerging markets has begun to improve. But for now this pick-up seems to have been limited to manufacturing-based economies, mainly in Asia... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China's leadership change matters more to EMs than US election The imminent leadership change in China is a more significant event for emerging economies than the re-election of President Obama. The installation of a cohesive Chinese leadership committed to... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Making sense of the Andes construction boom Increased savings and investment levels have fuelled a surge in construction activity in Latin America’s Andean economies, helping to raise their long-run growth potential. But in a few countries... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican auto sector revving up for stronger exports We estimate that an increase in motor vehicle exports to the US could add around 0.5% to Mexican GDP in each of the next four years. This supports our expectation that the Mexican economy is... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs improve, but EM manufacturing growth still sluggish The PMI data released across the emerging world over the past few days showed some signs of improvement, but the bigger picture is that manufacturers are still struggling – particularly in the smaller... 2nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: drop in industry a payback for summer gains The sharp fall in Brazilian industrial production in September is partly a payback from the large monthly increases in output seen in July and August. The bigger picture is that policy stimulus has... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Has China helped or hurt emerging economies? China’s development has had a significant impact on emerging market growth, and not all economies have unambiguously benefitted. Even countries that have made the most of Chinese demand may find... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
