Emerging Markets Economics Update How is government spending affecting EM growth? In parts of the emerging market world, an increasingly pro-cyclical government spending bias threatens to contribute to a more volatile pattern of growth. Within Latin America there is a risk that... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation could rise above 6% The rise in Brazilian inflation last month is particularly worrying since it came despite a moderation in food inflation. With plans to cut electricity tariffs now under threat from a drought that has... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador: recent slowdown has further to run The pace of growth of Ecuador’s economy slowed substantially in 2012 and we expect this trend to continue over the current year. This is unlikely to put a serious dent in President Correa’s bid for re... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Slow start to 2013 in the US will hold back EMs The worst case scenarios associated with the US “fiscal cliff” have been avoided, but the US is still likely to get off to a slow start to the year. It will hold back growth in EMs, but it will not be... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean peso to end the year below 500/US$ A strong start to the year for the Chilean peso has led to renewed speculation that the central bank will be forced to intervene in FX markets to weaken the currency. While intervention is possible... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Crumbling BRICs The economic outlook for the emerging world has brightened with most regions on course for a pick-up in growth in early 2013. But expectations for a rapid and sustained rebound are likely to be... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Outlook brightens (a little) for Argentina in debt dispute Events have recently swung back in Argentina’s favour in its dispute with holdout bondholders. Despite this, there remains a significant risk of a default over the course of this year. What’s more... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of developments in Venezuela The recent rally in Venezuelan government bonds, on the back of speculation that the deteriorating health of President Hugo Chávez will lead to a shift towards more market friendly policies, stands in... 7th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican industry may not be as strong as the PMI survey suggests We suspect that the record high reading from the Mexican manufacturing PMI in December paints a false picture of strength. Other surveys have been weaker, and the hard data suggest that activity... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Europe lagging behind in EM recovery Emerging market manufacturing grew at its fastest pace in more than 18 months in December, according to the latest PMI data. However, the improvement in performance was concentrated in Asia and Latin... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What to expect from Brazil in 2013 Brazil’s recovery will continue in 2013 but growth is likely to be lacklustre by historic standards. Above target inflation will prevent further policy support in the first few months of the year, but... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s industrial recovery struggling to gain momentum The slight fall in the Brazilian Manufacturing PMI in December suggests that while industry in Latin America’s largest economy continued to grow in the final months of last year, the pace of expansion... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian GDP growth to slow further in 2013 The unexpectedly sharp slowdown in Colombian GDP growth in Q3 supports our non-consensus view that interest rates are likely to fall further. In fact, we think the central bank is now likely to cut... 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation drops to near-three-year low Emerging Market (EM) inflation slowed to a near-three-year low in November. Fears of a food-led inflation shock this year have proved to be misplaced, as we had expected. While inflation is likely to... 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Signs of improvement in Q4 Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth in Latin American has accelerated in Q4, with a recovery in Brazil offsetting a slowdown in Mexico. However, the Brazilian economy is reaching the limits of... 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Another tough year in 2013 Emerging markets (EMs) have endured their most difficult year since the global recession of 2009. GDP appears to have expanded by about 4.8% this year, down from an average of over 6% during the past... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
