Latin America Economics Update Mexican slowdown confined to industrial sector Mexican fourth quarter GDP data suggest that despite the weakness of industry in the final months of last year, domestically focussed sectors have taken up the slack. We expect the economy to grow by... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador gambles on a third Correa term Rafael Correa’s emphatic victory in yesterday’s Ecuadorian Presidential Election looks to have breathed new life into a Latin American left which has suffered a series of setbacks in recent months... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update 'Currency wars' pose dilemma for Chilean policymakers Chile’s Central Bank faces a difficult balancing act between cooling buoyant domestic demand, which suggests a need for tighter monetary policy, and taming a strong currency, which is already weighing... 15th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Export split reinforces concerns of “currency wars” The continued weakness of exports from commodity producers in the emerging world will add further fuel to the debate over “currency wars”. By contrast, exports from manufacturing-focused economies in... 15th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs right to be wary of rapid capital inflows Behind the rhetoric of global currency wars lies a more fundamental concern that loose monetary policy in the developed economies will lead to rapid and destabilising capital inflows to the emerging... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine peso falls through 5/US$ and set to keep going The Argentine peso fell to a record low of 5/US$ today, however most small businesses and consumers are forced to access dollars at an even weaker rate on the black market. Going forward, we expect... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latest devaluation won't cure Venezuela's economic ills The Venezuelan authorities bowed to the inevitable late on Friday and devalued the bolivar fuerte. Although this should help to ease some of the strains in the public finances, it won’t do much to... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Is a bubble forming in financial markets in the emerging world? The yield of the JP Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index Plus recently fell to its lowest ever level, while the annual average dollar-based return from the MSCI Emerging Market Index of equities has been... 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: interest rate change still looks a distant prospect The latest data do little to change our view that Peruvian interest rates are going nowhere this year. Persistent concerns over the strength of the sol mean that policymakers are far more likely to... 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation: from bad to worse Brazil’s inflation data are going from bad to worse. Headline inflation rose to a 12-month high of 6.2% last month and is likely to remain above 6% for at least the first half of this year. The... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s labour market puzzle The most puzzling aspect of Brazil’s poor economic performance of the past 18 months is that it has come alongside an improvement in the labour market. We think the explanation lies in Brazil’s low... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Are Emerging Markets about to take off? Our Emerging Market GDP trackers suggest that growth across the emerging world has picked in recent months. We expect a further acceleration over the first half of this year, but sustaining the... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM consumers go their separate ways Strong employment growth, coupled with favourable credit dynamics, should ensure that consumer spending continues to outperform in Emerging Asia over the coming years. By contrast, consumption looks... 6th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Mexico could grow at 4% despite sluggish US economy The Mexican economy is unlikely to de-couple from the neighbouring US in an absolute sense over the coming years, but it may at least decouple on a relative basis. Whereas our forecast for US GDP... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Major EM regions all now reporting stronger growth The ongoing recovery in emerging world manufacturing looks increasingly broad based. The PMIs for Latin America and Emerging Asia have risen rapidly since mid-2012 and the latest figures point to a... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fading credit boom takes the shine off Latin America Signs that Latin America’s lending boom has faded support our belief that credit can’t continue to be as big an economic driver as in the recent past, and we expect GDP growth to ease this year... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
