Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery stutters The latest PMI surveys suggest that the recovery in emerging world manufacturing has lost a little steam recently. Part of the weakness can be explained by the effects of the Chinese New Year, which... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico edges towards energy reform Confirmation that Mexico’s governing PRI party will support reforms to open up the state-owned oil company Pemex has cleared a major obstacle to private sector investment in the energy industry... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil's recovery remains lacklustre Brazil’s recovery grinds on, but the pace of growth is still disappointingly sluggish. Unless or until investment becomes a bigger part of the economy, growth is likely to be lacklustre and inflation... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Crumbling BRICs - will the largest EMs regain their vigour? The recent slowdowns in the BRIC economies are largely structural in nature and so are unlikely to be reversed without wide-ranging economic reform. Slower growth in the BRICs is likely to shave half... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Jan.) Yesterday’s US appeals court hearing has arguably increased the risk of a fresh Argentine debt default. But in the real economy, at least, there are signs that things are improving. An uptick in... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation set for a modest rebound Emerging market (EM) inflation looks to have found a floor in late 2012 and is set for a modest rebound over the first half of this year. Food inflation is likely to pick up in the coming months and... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A last hurrah for Venezuela’s economy Venezuela outperformed most of Latin America last year, but the economy is likely to slow sharply in 2013. In fact, we still think that it could enter recession this year. And a period of lower oil... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Exporters still struggling Latin American exporters remain stuck in rut. We estimate that the region’s export revenues grew by a mere 1% in 2012. A key factor in this poor performance has been that the prices of commodities –... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A different take on "currency wars" The “Swan Diagram” – developed by the Australian academic Trevor Swan in the 1950s – offers a fresh perspective on global “currency wars”. It suggests that macro imbalances in those EMs that have been... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Low inflation leaves room for more rate cuts A combination of weak economic growth and low inflation suggest that Colombian interest rates have further to fall. We now expect a further 50bps of cuts to 3.25% over the coming months. 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: tighter fiscal policy would help to rebalance economy Peru’s economy expanded by a healthy 5.9% y/y in Q4, however growth continues to be heavily dependent on domestic demand. In the current environment of improved global risk appetite, there is a risk... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Policymakers step-up rhetoric while EM currencies fall Talk of “currency wars” remains rife among EM policymakers but most EM currencies have actually weakened over the past month. This partly reflects growing investor fears of official intervention, but... 22nd February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Overall EM inflows not at danger levels but country risks remain Capital flows to emerging economies are not yet running at a rate that should be a major cause for concern. But estimates of flows in aggregate miss some of the key risks facing individual economies. 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian real strengthens on policy U-turn The Brazilian real has rallied towards 1.95/US$ in recent weeks after government officials hinted that a stronger currency would be tolerated to help contain inflation. By contrast, in most other... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuelan bond yields set to return to double-digit rates Global copper mine supply grew at its fastest rate in eight years in the closing months of 2012 and mine output is likely to grow just as quickly this year. This should enable smelters to raise their... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil consumption: holding up for now Despite the surprise fall in retail sales in December, Brazilian consumer spending growth appears to have been strong in the final quarter of last year. The problem is that with local producers either... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
