Latin America Economics Update New exchange system won’t solve Venezuela’s dollar drought Venezuela’s new foreign exchange system will do nothing to reduce the economy’s reliance upon high oil prices and petro-loans from China. If either of these props give way, “Chavismo” will quickly... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Monetary policy gets interesting Monetary policy in Latin America has suddenly become interesting. Having kept interest rates on hold for over three years, Mexico unexpectedly cut borrowing costs earlier this month. Meanwhile, Brazil... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM recovery falters Our EM GDP Tracker provides tentative evidence that the recent emerging market recovery is losing steam. Growth slowed slightly in Emerging Asia and Latin America in January, and continues to be very... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean growth remains strong, but likely to slow ahead Chile posted another quarter of robust GDP growth in Q4, but we remain concerned about the extent to which growth has become dependent on the strength of domestic demand. Meanwhile, the latest data... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BANXICO unlikely to step in to stem peso appreciation yet We expect the Mexican peso to continue to outperform its peers over the coming months. But while the peso may appreciate towards 12/$ this year, we doubt that the central bank (BANXICO) is about to... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean central bank edging closer to FX intervention Chile’s central bank (BCC) stopped short of announcing measures to weaken the peso at last night’s policy meeting, but its accompanying statement revealed mounting concerns about the strength of the... 15th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Divergence in export performance deepens The recovery in Emerging Market exports continues to be concentrated in Asia. By contrast, exports from other EM regions, and commodity producers in particular, remain disappointing. 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Outlook brightens, Mexico to stay ahead of Brazil Growth in Latin America has accelerated in recent months and we expect the upturn to continue in most countries over the coming quarters. Nonetheless, growth is unlikely to return to the rates seen in... 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the underperformance of EM equities set to continue? While the recent underperformance of emerging market (EM) equities has been surprising given the strength of developed market (DM) equities, we think it may continue for a while yet. 13th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The new "Growth Stars" - which EMs are set to shine? As the BRICs enter a period of slower growth, new emerging market “growth stars” will come to the fore. We are particularly upbeat on the economies of sub-Saharan Africa and South East Asia. But... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico rate cut likely to be a one-off Today’s cut in Mexican interest rates was a surprise, particularly in light of further evidence that the US economy is strengthening. We suspect that it was a one-off and do not think it marks the... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: weaker currency bolsters case for holding rates The Peruvian Central Bank (BCRP) has deployed a raft of measures to combat currency appreciation in early 2013 and for the moment, at least, appears to be succeeding in its efforts. With the nuevo sol... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Should we worry about EM central bank independence? Fears that politicians in the emerging world are trying to tighten their grip over monetary policy are generally wide of the mark. But Hungary is a notable exception. 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil paves the way for policy tightening Brazil left interest rates unchanged last night but the accompanying statement suggested that without fresh evidence that inflation pressures are easing, policy will be tightened at the next month’s... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Death of Chavez increases uncertainty in Venezuela The death of the Venezuelan President, Hugo Chávez, comes at a time when there are already mounting concerns about the outlook for the economy. His preferred successor, Nicolas Maduro, will probably... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Chilean consumer can’t keep driving economic growth Chilean consumer spending is growing at an unsustainable pace and needs to cool if the economy is to avoid storing up problems for the future. We expect to see a gradual moderation in spending this... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
