Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Exporters starting to struggle The latest trade data provide further evidence that Emerging Market exporters are starting to struggle. But while exports from Emerging Asia have continued to grow (albeit at a slower rate), exports... 10th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peruvian rates to stay on hold for the rest of this year Last night’s central bank meeting in Peru offered little to suggest that policymakers are considering a near-term change in interest rates. Going forward, we expect the monetary policy bias to shift... 10th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM debt: where do the risks lie? Total debt in emerging markets (EMs) is relatively low by international standards. But the history of EMs suggests that crises often occur when credit grows rapidly for several years rather than... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Will Brazil’s oil output reach its potential? Brazil is unlikely to meet its ambitious targets for oil production, but crude output could still increase by at least one million barrels per day from current levels by 2020. This would add to... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What can Uruguay do to bring inflation down? Contrary to popular belief, Uruguay’s stubbornly high inflation rate is partly structural in nature and not simply the result of overheated demand. Bringing inflation down permanently will require far... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation edges to within target range The drop in Brazilian inflation last month was a bit smaller than expected but still sufficient to bring it back within the central bank’s target range. Looking ahead, we expect inflation to fluctuate... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian consumers starting to feel the strain The recent slump in retail sales in Brazil probably overstates the true weakness of consumer spending. Nonetheless, putting to one side the volatility of the monthly data, there are signs that Brazil... 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery fades as BRICs lose steam The April manufacturing PMIs add to evidence that the emerging market (EM) recovery has lost pace in recent months. The slowdown has affected most EM regions, but the BRIC economies seem to have been... 3rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: further evidence of a faltering recovery The drop in the manufacturing PMI for April adds to evidence that Brazil’s recovery has faltered in recent months and is another reason to think that the current monetary policy tightening cycle will... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Can we trust Chile's inflation data? There appears to be some truth to claims that discrepancies in Chile’s consumer price data have lowered inflation artificially. Even so, the overall impact on headline CPI has been relatively small... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industrial boom a mostly Asian story Industrial output in the emerging world has increased by a remarkable 30% in the past five years. Yet impressive growth at an aggregate level masks a wide variation in the performance of individual... 1st May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth softens The past month has brought further signs that the recovery in economic growth in Latin America that began in mid-2012 is now running into headwinds. Admittedly, calendar effects have probably... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mining stocks take a hit Latin American equities have mostly sold off over the past month, compounding an already weak start to the year. Hardest hit have been the large mining firms based in the Andes, many of whom appear to... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates on hold for foreseeable future The Colombian government’s stimulus package may boost industry at the margin, but it is unlikely to solve the problem of an overvalued peso and widening economic imbalances. As a result, we doubt that... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican rates on hold for the foreseeable future We suspect that the Mexican central bank (BANXICO) is set for another prolonged period of inactivity. High inflation will prevent additional rate cuts in the near term, while a rebound in economic... 26th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What do lower copper prices mean for Chile? The recent falls in global copper prices add further weight to our belief that GDP growth in Chile will be slower than most expect this year. Even so, this is unlikely to be a disaster for the economy... 26th April 2013 · 1 min read
