Emerging Markets Economics Update EM bank resilience improves, but risks continue to lurk Higher profitability has helped to boost EM banks’ financial positions over the past year and reduced the tail of weak banks that might struggle to cope with rising loan losses on their balance sheets... 7th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s fiscal worries, Panama protests, Colombia rates Fiscal risks have reared their head again in Brazil amid comments from President Lula that the government may no longer aim for a balanced primary budget in 2024. In the near-term, any fiscal slippage... 3rd November 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update BCB to continue to cut in 50bp steps Brazil’s central bank (BCB) cut the Selic rate by 50bp, to 12.25%, at yesterday’s Copom meeting and signalled again that further similar reductions lie in store over the next few meetings. Even so... 2nd November 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q3 Provisional) Mexico’s economy posted solid growth of 0.9% q/q in Q3, but we still think a slowdown is on the cards over the coming quarters as tight monetary policy takes a heavier toll and weaker growth in the US... 31st October 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Massa vs. Milei, Colombia-China, Chile’s peso worries In Argentina, investors’ nerves have been calmed a little after Sergio Massa, the Peronist presidential candidate who came top in the first round vote, showed signs of moderation. But likely fiscal... 27th October 2023 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Update The Chilean peso likely to break its spell of underperformance We think the Chilean peso is poised for a rebound in 2024 as the headwinds from the narrowing interest rate differential and the terms of trade deterioration reverse. 26th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (October 2023) The Brazilian mid-month inflation figure for October, of 5.0% y/y, confirms that the recent rise in inflation has now passed its peak and paves the way for another 50bp cut in the Selic rate (to 12.25... 26th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Assessing fiscal risks from higher interest rates in EMs Higher bond yields will add to fiscal pressures in those EMs with particularly large public debt burdens and weak debt dynamics. Brazil, South Africa as well as Colombia and Mexico are the EMs from... 26th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Brazil and Mexico will outperform others in the region this year, but that’s likely to flip... 25th October 2023 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation back to target by end-2024 Global headline inflation has fallen sharply from its peak a year ago and, despite a temporary setback due to higher fuel inflation, we expect it to fall a lot further over the coming year. The huge... 24th October 2023 · 16 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct.) The fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to a 31-month low of 4.3% y/y in the first half of October masked a worrying pick-up in services inflation. This, combined with rapid wage growth and... 24th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: más Massa? The strong showing for Peronist candidate and current Economy Minister Sergio Massa in Sunday’s presidential election in Argentina means that the run-up to the second round vote in November is likely... 23rd October 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina and Ecuador’s elections, Venezuela sanctions Argentina's dire economic situation will be top of many voters’ minds when they head to the polls on Sunday, but the election will also have important geopolitical implications. An opposition victory... 20th October 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Labour markets cooling, but wage growth remains strong There are mounting signs that labour market conditions in many parts of Latin America are starting to loosen, but wages are still rising at a rapid pace and it will take time for wage growth to return... 19th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM exports treading water Aggregate EM goods exports have struggled for momentum in recent months and, while there were more positive signs from some of the timely September trade data, we think that exports are likely to... 18th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Stakes in Argentina’s election couldn’t be higher Argentines face the choice between a shock-therapy style approach to tackling the country’s economic issues or more of the same unorthodox policymaking when they head to the polls in Sunday’s... 17th October 2023 · 4 mins read
