Latin America Economics Update Investment plan another reason to expect Mexico rebound The poor performance of the Mexican economy so far this year has been one of the biggest disappointments in Latin America. In this Watch we explain why, in contrast to Brazil, the slowdown owes more... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican industry should still outperform Despite a poor start to the year there are still good reasons to expect Mexican manufacturing to strengthen over the second half of 2013 and support a period of relatively strong growth in the wider... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Soybean prices likely to fall back by year end We expect the price of US soybeans to decline gradually over the summer as exports from South America pick up. They may then fall more rapidly by the end of the year as a large supply of crops from... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean central bank hints at a rate cut ahead The Central Bank of Chile left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.0% last night, but gave the clearest signal yet that a rate cut is on the cards in the coming months. Elsewhere, the prospect... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Higher rates add to headwinds for Brazil’s economy The decision last night by Brazil’s central bank (BCB) to raise interest rates by 50bps to 8.5% was expected, but the accompanying statement suggested that further hikes are likely over the coming... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exporters remain under pressure The latest batch of EM trade data suggests that exporters continue to struggle in the face of slowing demand from their major global trade partners. Moreover, there isn’t much in the forward-looking... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Some tentative signs of stabilisation Yields of dollar-denominated emerging market government bonds have surged since late May, reflecting increases in both underlying US Treasury yields and credit spreads. But while Treasury yields have... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China’s slowdown: which EMs are most exposed? Last week we published for the first time our forecasts for 2015 GDP growth in China, which put us right at the bottom end of consensus expectations. For the rest of the emerging world, the effects of... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s commodity boom – an opportunity missed When all’s said and done, the commodity price boom of the past decade will probably go down as a wasted opportunity for the economies of Latin America. Rather than saving and investing their windfall... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook The turning tide - life after QE Emerging economies are much better positioned than in the past to withstand policy tightening by the Fed and few are at risk of an immediate crisis. Nonetheless, we are entering a new era for emerging... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile's economy slowing, but imbalances still widening Today’s activity data provide further evidence that Chile’s economy is losing speed. Yet while the headline numbers will grab most of the attention, we are more concerned about the relentless widening... 5th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian industry still has a competitiveness problem The recent depreciation of the peso does not appear to have fully reversed the loss of competitiveness suffered by Colombian industry during the past decade. As a result, while the worst of the... 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Latin America’s hidden vulnerabilities The shift towards tighter monetary policy in the developed world combined with the drop in most commodity prices that we forecast over the next year or so threatens to expose key vulnerabilities in... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The EM winners and losers from the shale revolution There’s a vast amount of uncertainty about the potential for developing countries to follow the US and Canada in exploiting their shale reserves. But if they can, it could turn a large number of... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMIs fall again, but Emerging Europe bucks the trend June’s PMIs suggest that the downturn in emerging market manufacturing is gathering pace, with our EM-wide PMI estimate dropping to its lowest level for nearly a year. Producers in Asia and Latin... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Little to cheer in June's PMIs There’s not much to cheer in June’s PMI data for Latin America. Brazilian industry appears to be treading water, while the Mexican manufacturing sector is still slowing. Instead, the glimmer of hope... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
