Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM trade steadies after first half slowdown There are some signs in the latest EM trade data that the slowdown in exports witnessed over the first half of this year has eased. Even so, export growth remains broadly flat in year-on-year terms in... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fiscal populism setting Argentina up for a fall Argentina’s public finances have deteriorated by more than meets the eye under Cristina Fernández. Increased monetisation and the transfer of resources from public institutions have prevented the... 7th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs likely to tread carefully with energy subsidy reform High global energy prices have contributed to rising subsidy spending across much of the emerging world. Some EMs have already started to cut back on subsidies. But fears of inflation and civil unrest... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMI falls to four-year low Our EM-wide PMI estimate suggests that conditions in emerging market manufacturing are now the weakest they have been since early 2009. 2nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Don’t read too much into the fall in Mexico’s PMI Both the Mexican and Brazilian manufacturing PMIs fell in July but the similarities end there. In Brazil, the PMI has a fairly good relationship with actual activity data and suggests that the... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update “Great Deceleration” has long since begun Recent talk of a looming “Great Deceleration” in EM growth has tended to miss the crucial fact that the emerging world has already been slowing for several years. In this Update we summarise five key... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Rates to stay lower than the market expects Latin American central banks have taken divergent paths in 2013. Whereas Brazil started to hike interest rates in April, both Colombia and Mexico have trimmed their benchmark rates this year... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Jun.) Our Argentina Activity Indicator suggests that GDP growth picked up by more than we had initially expected in Q2. And with the fiscal purse strings set to be loosened further ahead of October’s mid... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook A new era of weaker growth Latin American growth fell to its slowest rate since 2009 in the first half of this year and, while some countries are likely to see a rebound over the coming quarters, we think that for most this... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets steady following Q2 rout Latin American financial markets have steadied in July after a sharp sell-off over the previous couple of months. We suspect that markets will stay under pressure in the near term. However, the worst... 26th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Glimmers of hope? Our GDP Tracker suggests that after a sharp slowdown at the start of the year, EM growth ticked up in May. Evidence of a possible turnaround is strongest in Emerging Europe, and weakest in Emerging... 26th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation turns around, but big pick-up unlikely Emerging market inflation rose last month, but the combination of soft core price pressures and falling global food price inflation means that any further increases are likely to be limited. 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil fiddles around the fiscal edges The freeze to some areas of government spending announced by Brazil’s government last night amounts to further fiddling around the edges at the expense of more fundamental fiscal reforms needed to... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Revamped SICAD won’t save Venezuela The re-launch of foreign exchange auctions in Venezuela, coupled with an increase in the public debt ceiling, is unlikely to solve the country’s dollar drought. We continue to think that GDP will... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Currency sell-off unlikely to prompt a wave of rate hikes Lingering fears over the impact of a tapering of asset purchases by the US Fed have seen emerging market currencies continue to weaken over the past month – countries with current account deficits... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s industrial recovery limited to auto sector This year’s revival in Argentine vehicle production stands out against the backdrop of an otherwise moribund manufacturing sector. But we doubt that this is an early indicator of better times ahead... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
