Emerging Markets Economics Update Should we still worry about EM currency crises? Improved fundamentals mean that currency crises pose a much smaller risk to Emerging Markets now than in the past. But it would be unwise to assume that the coast is therefore clear for the emerging... 26th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil FX intervention plan looks big by EM standards The $60bn currency intervention programme announced by Brazil late last night represents one of the boldest attempts yet by an EM central bank to shore up its currency following the rout of recent... 23rd August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency weakness unlikely to cause EM inflation to rise The sell-off in emerging market (EM) currencies this month is unlikely to have much of an impact on EM-wide inflation. Indeed, looking ahead, we think the outlook for EM inflation is fairly benign. 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Has the Brazilian bond market gone nuts? We doubt the recent significant underperformance of Brazil’s local currency government bonds will last. A surge in yields has been mainly driven by expectations of much more aggressive monetary... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currencies back in the firing line Latin America has not been spared in the latest emerging market sell-off, with currencies and bonds tumbling over the past few weeks. However, in contrast to May’s sell-off, equity markets have so far... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican economy to recover from bad year Weak Q2 GDP data was the last thing that Mexican markets needed after the rout of the past few days. That being said, we suspect that Q2 will mark the low point for the economy and that growth will... 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three questions (and answers) about the EM currency sell-off The renewed sell-off in EM currencies has cast a fresh spotlight on vulnerabilities in the emerging world. In this Update we answer three key questions that have been raised by recent market moves. 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: how will policymakers respond to market rout? The sell-off in the Brazilian real over the past month has triggered a sharp upward revision in market expectations for interest rates over the next year. In this month’s Watch we explain why... 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean growth settling down to slower trend Today’s GDP data confirm that Chile’s economy is cooling and is likely to settle at a slower trend pace in the coming years. Given the current resilience of domestic demand, we do not foresee a... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Signs of improvement in China and Brazil The past month has brought some hope that economic conditions in two of the four BRICs – Brazil and China – might be improving. In China, data on trade, industrial production and investment have all... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean central bank bides its time over rate move Yesterday’s central bank meeting in Chile revealed that policymakers are taking a cautious approach to changes in interest rates despite evidence of a slowing economy. We remain comfortable with our... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What does the “services revolution” mean for EMs? Improvements in technology are making it increasingly easy to trade services. This has led some commentators to argue that services can become a more viable driver of EM growth, allowing EMs to break... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Energy reform to support outperformance of Mexican economy The Mexican government’s plan to open up the oil industry to foreign investment could boost annual GDP growth by 0.3%-pts over the next decade and also give a substantial boost to tax receipts. This... 13th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Chilean monetary policy? By all accounts this week’s interest rate decision in Chile is set to be a close call. We’re forecasting a 25bp cut to 4.75% but acknowledge that a slightly firmer tone to the recent economic data... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru rates on hold, cuts still unlikely this year Last night’s central bank meeting in Peru has done little to alter our baseline view that interest rates are going nowhere this year. We expect the economy to weaken in the coming months, however... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Inflation concerns ease in Brazil and Mexico July’s data will help to allay inflation concerns in Latin America’s two largest economies – Brazil and Mexico. Inflation fell back to within target range in both countries and looks set to remain... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
