Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Little threat of a systemic EM crisis We do not expect the tapering and eventual ending of QE by the US Fed to be the trigger for a systemic Emerging Market (EM) crisis. Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that financial... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s housing bubble revisited A warning from US economist Robert Shiller about the recent sharp rise in Brazilian house prices has revived fears of a property bubble in Latin America’s largest economy. Our position remains that... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Two cheers for fiscal reform in Mexico The package of tax reforms announced over the weekend by the Mexican government is the most significant in recent history, but will still leave the authorities highly reliant on oil as a source of... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican interest rate cut is probably a one-off We do not think that today’s unexpected interest rate cut by the Mexican central bank signals the onset of an aggressive easing cycle. Indeed, with forward-looking indicators suggesting thateconomic... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s industrial recovery built on weak foundations Brazil’s beleaguered manufacturing sector came back from the dead to give the economy a muchneededboost in Q2. But hopes for a sustained recovery in industry this year are likely to bedisappointed. In... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: solid start to Q3 could delay monetary easing Today’s IMACEC activity indicator revealed that Chile’s economy picked up pace at the start of Q3. This is unlikely to signal a turn in the economic cycle following two quarters of slowing growth, but... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian and Mexican industry trading places The latest manufacturing PMI survey for Brazil suggests that, having been responsible for stronger-than expected GDP growth in Q2, industrial production is likely to weaken again in the second half of... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update BRIC GDP growth propped up by Brazil rebound in Q2 At an aggregate level, the second quarter GDP data suggest that the BRIC economies held up relatively well in Q2. However, this was largely due to a surprisingly strong rebound in Brazil. In the other... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Dovish statement to temper expectation of rate hikes in Colombia The dovish tone of the Colombian central bank’s monetary policy announcement supports our view that interest rates will remain lower for longer than most expect. We would not rule out further rate... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil unlikely to sustain rapid GDP growth Strong second quarter GDP growth and further signs of rebalancing in the Brazilian economy are good news. But with consumption set to remain weak and domestic savings low, we continue to expect GDP... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Exporters beginning to benefit from weaker currencies The recent increase in manufactured exports may be the first sign that Latin American industry is beginning to feel the benefit of weaker currencies. Nominal exports grew by 2.2% y/y in July, having... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian interest rates to rise by less than market expects Brazil’s decision to hike interest rates by a further 50bp last night will have been bolstered by the extent of the recent slide in the real. But the rise in market rate expectations over the past... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Don’t be fooled by Q2, Venezuela is still vulnerable to a crisis Surprisingly strong Q2 data have left Venezuelan GDP on course to grow by 0.5% this year, but severe underlying problems in the economy have not been solved. If oil prices fall over the coming years... 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth remains disappointing Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth is no longer slowing across the emerging world, with the exception of Emerging Asia. But neither does it seem to be recovering. 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Jul.) The threat of a fresh sovereign debt default continues to cast a long shadow over Argentina, following last Friday’s US Appeals Court ruling. But in the real economy things are looking somewhat... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rebound in Peruvian growth unlikely to be sustained Peru’s economy picked up pace in Q2, but the scope for a further acceleration of GDP growth from here looks extremely limited. In contrast to the consensus, we believe that the trend will be towards a... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
