Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Commodity exporters lag behind in EM export recovery We wouldn't read too much into the slowdown in EM export growth in September. The monthly data are volatile and there are already signs that exports rebounded in October. Nonetheless, EM export growth... 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What will Bachelet 2.0 mean for Chile? This weekend’s Chilean Presidential Election may go down as the most one-sided affair in recent memory, with former president Michelle Bachelet set to sweep to a second term in office. But while the... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update The worst is now behind Mexico The Mexican economy has had a year to forget, but the worst should now be behind it. While GDP growth may struggle to top 1.2% this year, we expect it to accelerate to over 4% y/y in 2014-15. This... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs will benefit most from a US recovery? A raft of strong activity data from the US suggests that the recovery there is gaining momentum. We expect growth in the US to accelerate further over the coming quarters. The biggest beneficiaries in... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru follows Chile’s lead with surprise rate cut Peru surprised markets with an interest rate cut last night, becoming the latest in a line of Latin American central banks to launch into easing mode in 2013. Although the timing of yesterday’s rate... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM bank funding carrying more risks We’ve voiced concern about the pace of credit growth in a number of EMs. Worryingly, the composition of banks’ funding appears to have deteriorated at the same time, most notably in Turkey, but also... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Falling food inflation but core concerns persist in Brazil Slowing food inflation dragged headline inflation in most of Latin America last month, but that masks significant differences in the underlying outlook for inflation within the region. While inflation... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Easing food inflation to keep EM inflation pressures subdued Falling global food prices should keep food inflation subdued across much of the emerging world over the coming months. Emerging Europe and Latin America in particular are likely to see significant... 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How much do external conditions matter to Latin America? Our new Indicator of Global Conditions suggests that most of the fluctuations in Latin American GDP growth over the past few decades can be explained by changes in the global macroeconomic backdrop... 4th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Further signs of improvement in EM manufacturing Manufacturing across the emerging world appears to have made a strong start to Q4. Our EM-wide PMI estimate, based on data produced by Markit, is consistent with a pick-up in industrial production... 4th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s industrial recovery likely to outshine Brazil’s October’s manufacturing PMIs rose to exactly the same level in both Brazil and Mexico. But of the two economies, we suspect the recovery is more likely to be sustained in Mexico. 1st November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Low inflation to delay Colombian interest rate hikes The monetary easing cycle in Colombia appears to now be over but, by the same token, interest rate hikes are probably still some way off. We expect rates to remain lower for longer than most expect... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Little sign of recovery in EM growth Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth was probably unchanged from Q2 in the third quarter. Although there is evidence of a recovery in Emerging Asia, growth in Latin America probably slowed in Q3... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Sep.) Our Argentina Activity Indicator points to decent growth for Argentina’s economy in Q3. However, this is partly the result of a further loosening of the public purse strings in the run-up to last... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Time for greater differentiation in EM growth stories Our view that the major BRIC emerging markets were heading for a period of permanently weaker growth looked bold when we set it out a little over a year ago, but it has now been adopted by the... 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Inflation eases back Having picked up in several countries in the early part of this year, inflation has slowed in most of Latin America in recent months and is now back within its target range in each of the region's... 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
