Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s credit binge will have painful consequences Credit in Brazil has expanded to such an extent over the past decade that it now poses a serious risk to financial stability. The tightening of monetary policy over the past six months should help to... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Asia leads the way, but growth remains weak across EM world Our GDP Tracker suggests that although EM growth has probably picked up a little recently, it is too soon to talk about a meaningful rebound. Signs of recovery are strongest in Emerging Asia... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Selic to remain in double-digits for foreseeable future The slight alteration to the Brazilian monetary policy committee’s (COPOM) statement suggests that we are now nearing the end of the current tightening cycle. But while there are unlikely to be... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Dollar drought beginning to bite in Venezuela The ongoing dollar drought is starting to have severe repercussions for the Venezuelan economy. We continue to expect GDP to contract next year, while the risk of a debt default is increasing by the... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth relapses in the third quarter After staging a brief recovery in Q2, the Latin American economy appears to have suffered a relapse in the third quarter. Our calculations show that regional growth slowed to just 2.5% y/y in Q3, from... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: entering an era of slower growth A highly favourable external backdrop has transformed Peru into one of the region’s undoubted growth stars over the course of the past decade, but the latest GDP data suggest that the tide has now... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM exporters benefit from Chinese rebound EM exporters appear to have benefited from the recent investment-led rebound in China. But with China's infrastructure spending now easing again and policymakers determined to rein in credit growth... 22nd November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Q3 the low point for Mexican GDP We expect Mexico’s poor performance in the third quarter to be the low point for the economy. While GDP growth will struggle to top 1.2% this year, it remains on course to accelerate to over 4% during... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Default remains a genuine concern in Venezuela We remain sceptical about the ability of the Venezuelan government to service its mounting foreign currency debt over the medium term. Default remains a clear risk, especially if oil prices fall. 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: ignoring the lessons from Venezuela? Several high profile changes to Argentina's cabinet have reawakened speculation that the country is on the brink of formalising a multiple exchange rate system. If the experience of Venezuela is... 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile cuts rates again to revive flagging domestic demand Chile’s central bank (BCC) lowered its policy rate by a further 25bps last night in response to fresh signs that domestic demand is cooling. With growth and inflation set to remain weak for the... 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Stepping back from the EM currency rollercoaster EM currencies have resumed their rollercoaster ride over the past couple of weeks – first weakening on the back of renewed expectations that the Fed might start to taper its asset purchases by the end... 19th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Q3 data underline challenges awaiting Bachelet Chilean Q3 GDP data were stronger than expected, but this was largely driven by a rebound in mining exports which is unlikely to be sustained. With investment weakening and the current account deficit... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fresh falls in Latin American currencies Latin American currencies have tumbled against the US dollar since mid-October and in many cases they are close to the lows that they reached during the height of this summer’s market sell-off... 15th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Exchange rates to frame EM monetary policy in near term Currency movements will continue to play a major part in determining emerging market (EM) monetary policy. Countries where currencies have weakened alongside large current account deficits - Brazil... 15th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s recovery fizzles out in Q3 The sharp pick-up in Brazilian growth in the second quarter of this year seems to have fizzled out in the third quarter. Indeed, it's possible that GDP data due to be released early next month will... 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
