Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth levels out at start of Q4 Our GDP Tracker suggests that having accelerated in Q3, EM growth levelled out at the start of Q4. Although we wouldn’t read too much into one month’s data, this is likely to set the scene for 2014... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation to stay low in 2014 Emerging market (EM) inflation remained low by historic standards in November. Recent declines in global commodity prices should dampen inflation over the coming months, while we see little sign of... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican energy reform sets scene for stronger growth The landmark reform to open up the Mexican oil industry to private sector investment should alleviate concerns that the government’s ambitious reform programme has stalled before it has got off the... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rate cuts still likely in Chile and Peru in 2014 Policymakers in both Chile and Peru left interest rates unchanged last night, but we continue to expect monetary policy to be loosened next year as economic growth slows. We have pencilled in 50bp of... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM GDP growth edging up With almost a complete set of Q3 GDP data now available, we estimate that aggregate EM growth edged up to 4.8% y/y, from 4.7% y/y in Q2. At a regional level, growth accelerated in Emerging Europe and... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor WTO agreement unlikely to be a game changer The EM export recovery continued in October, led mainly by net commodity importers. Various indiciators point to gradually improving export conditions, suggesting further gains in the months ahead... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A look ahead to 2014 elections The election calendar in Latin America is fairly quiet next year and even the two standout events - presidential elections in Colombia (in May) and Brazil (in October) - are likely to be relatively... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Sluggish growth in 2014-15 After a golden decade during which annual GDP expanded by an average of more than 4%, Latin America is now entering a new era of weaker growth. We expect GDP growth to average 2.5-3.0% during 2014-15... 11th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus How might policymakers react when the EM credit bubble bursts? We have previously identified six emerging markets where credit growth appears to be unsustainable: Brazil, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand and Turkey. In the event of a crisis, past experience... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What do China’s reforms mean for other EMs? The shift in China's growth model that has been signalled by its leadership would benefit many economies elsewhere in the emerging world while causing difficulties for others. Major commodity... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank dashes hopes that hiking cycle may be over The minutes to last month’s COPOM meeting, released this morning, will dash hopes that Brazilian policymakers might call a halt to interest rate hikes at their next meeting in January. 5th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Elections in the "Fragile Five": threat or an opportunity? Each of the five countries that were the worst hit by the summer currency sell-off (the so-called “Fragile Five”) are due to hold important elections next year. In the short term, uncertainty ahead of... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Old habits die hard in Brazil Brazilian GDP growth was weaker than expected in Q3, while the breakdown dashed hopes that the economy is rebalancing away from consumption and towards investment. With the economy reaching the limits... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update BRIC manufacturing recovery lags behind Manufacturing in the emerging world remains on course for a fairly strong final quarter of the year. Our EM-wide manufacturing PMI, based on data produced by Markit, is consistent with industrial... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican industry moves further ahead of Brazil November’s PMI surveys add to the evidence that the outlook for Mexican manufacturing has improved markedly in recent months. By contrast, Brazilian manufacturing appears to be entering a prolonged... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates to stay on hold for most of 2014 Following the Colombian central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold on Friday, we think that the Colombian economy will have to deteriorate significantly to trigger additional rate cuts... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
