Emerging Markets Economics Focus Which EMs are succeeding with the reform challenge? In contrast to the BRICs, where economic growth is likely to disappoint without structural reform, there are parts of the emerging world where recent economic reforms should provide a major boost to... 19th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile cuts rates and signals further easing to come The Central Bank of Chile (BCC) cut interest rates last night and signalled that further easing is possible in the months ahead. However, with inflation likely to edge up over the coming months, we... 19th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s wasted decade Concerns about widening current account deficits have been a key factor driving the recent turbulence in financial markets in Latin America. But while the deterioration in the current account... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Feb 14.) Our Argentina Activity Indicator (AAI) suggests that the economy grew by around 3% y/y in the final quarter of last year – broadly unchanged from the pace of growth in Q3. But this pre-dates last... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for “frontier” currencies? “Frontier” currencies have been the hardest hit in the latest bout of EM financial market turmoil. Looking ahead, we think further exchange rate weakness is likely to be concentrated in those... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: no rate cuts for now Despite the recent economic slowdown, high inflation and a widening current account deficit mean that the Peruvian Central Bank will probably have to keep monetary conditions tighter than they would... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A sluggish end to another disappointing year for Brazil The release of retail sales data for December allows us to have a first stab at estimating growth in Brazil the final quarter of last year. We reckon that the economy expanded at an annual rate of... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports picking up, but recovery uneven Surprisingly strong export growth from China last month has raised hopes of a broader recovery in EM exports. However, the country level data suggest that export performances are highly uneven, with... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCRA can’t keep up intervention for long Despite the recent calm, the continued decline of Argentine foreign exchange reserves suggests that it is only a matter of time before the BCRA is forced to let the peso fall again. We continue to... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Will the BRICs embrace economic reforms? The recent slowdown in the major BRIC economies has been driven largely by structural factors, meaning that a new wave of reforms is needed if they are to regain their vigour. But, as things stand... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update No evidence that weaker currencies are fuelling higher inflation Inflation was lower-than-expected across much of Latin America last month, which may help to dampen fears that weak currencies will fuel higher inflation. Despite this, another 50bp interest rate hike... 7th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: BANREP to allow further peso weakness In contrast to other parts of the emerging world, Colombian policymakers have welcomed the recent depreciation of the peso with open arms. We suspect that a further decline in the peso would be... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs highlight EM divergence Emerging market (EM) manufacturing appears to have slowed last month but, perhaps more importantly, there is a widening divergence between countries. Activity seems to be picking up in the more open... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s economy slows sharply at end of 2013 Activity data released today suggest that Chile’s economy slowed sharply in the final months of last year. Growth in Q4 as a whole may have slipped to just 2.7% y/y – its slowest rate in almost four... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brazilian drought heats up coffee and sugar markets High global stocks of sugar and coffee should be more than ample to cover any damage to crop production from the heat wave in Brazil. However, the amount of rain over the next few months will be the... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Five questions (and answers) about the turmoil in EM markets The emerging world may not be facing a re-run of the late-1990s, as some have suggested, but theprecarious position of some EMs makes it likely that several economies will run into trouble overthe... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
