Latin America Economics Update Currency sell-off sees Colombia overtake Argentina A depreciation of the Argentine peso has caused Colombia to overtake Argentina as the region’s third largest economy. Meanwhile, with a shortage of hard currency biting and the bolivar weakening... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Venezuela and Thailand still the most at risk The Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) has fallen to a ten-year low suggesting that there is very little threat of a 1990s-style systemic emerging market (EM) crisis. That being said, some... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Weaker domestic demand driving fragile five’s external positions At an aggregate level, the current account deficit of the “fragile five” (Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey) showed a welcome improvement towards the end of last year. But progress has... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Growth to stay weak as commodity boom ends The world economy is recovering, but we expect growth in Latin America to continue to trudge along at a rate of 2.5-3.0% over the coming years. Sluggish growth will be due in part to less supportive... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: strong growth in Q4, but weakness to come Colombian GDP growth beat expectations in the fourth quarter, but we doubt that the impressiveperformance can be sustained. Lower commodity prices, tighter global monetary conditions and weakercredit... 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack China fears resurface Worries about the impact on other emerging economies of a slowdown in China have risen back to the top of the agenda over the past month. While we do not believe a hard landing is likely, we do expect... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: slowdown here to stay Chile’s economy slowed dramatically in the fourth quarter of last year and growth looks set to remain weak throughout 2014-15 as the copper boom comes to an end. We are forecasting GDP growth of just... 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A primer on frontier markets Having been the darling of international investors over the past couple of years, a number of “frontier markets” have been cast in a negative light recently. In this Update, we take a step back to... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru and Chile: limited room for interest rate cuts this year The central bank of Chile (BCC) last night cut interest rates in response to a pronounced slowdown in economic growth, while Peruvian interest rates were left on hold after a pick-up in activity at... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rising inflation not as alarming as it appears The sharp rise in regional inflation over the past year is starting to cause concern in some quarters. But a closer look reveals that the increase has been due to a jump in inflation in just two... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China fears resurface The past few days have seen renewed fears of a hard landing in China ripple through EM financial markets. These fears are nothing new and have in fact resurfaced at a time when EM export growth to... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Structural change in China: who is most vulnerable? The past week has seen renewed concern that a slowdown in China will drag on growth in the rest of the emerging world, including Latin America. We think some of these concerns are justified. But while... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Dilma’s first term in six charts Brazil’s president, Dilma Rousseff, looks set to triumph at elections later this year, despite the fact that economic growth during her time in office has been weaker than under any president since... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Manufacturers outperforming Export growth was more or less flat at an EM-wide level in January, but there’s a growing divergence at a country level, with highly-open manufacturing economies in Central Europe and East Asia... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: Creaking current account points to default One year after the death of Hugo Chavez, the former Venezuelan President’s legacy of fiscal largesse and rampant inflation has left the economy on the brink of a balance of payments crisis. With... 6th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging European manufacturers lead the way Emerging market (EM) manufacturing appears to have lost some momentum last month. But while manufacturing PMIs have slumped in both Emerging Asia and Latin America, manufacturers in Emerging Europe... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
