Latin America Economics Update Peru: Rates on hold – some small cuts possible this year Peruvian interest rates were left unchanged at 4% last night and we think that high inflation and a large current account deficit mean that there is little room for aggressive easing this year as... 11th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth still sluggish EM-wide exports fell in February and, while this may be due in part to distortions in the Chinese data, the bigger picture is that EM export growth has been sluggish for the past two years. There are... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil & Mexico inflation head in opposite directions The latest jump in inflation in Brazil will put pressure on policymakers to raise interest rates further, despite having signalled an end to monetary tightening at last month’s COPOM meeting. In... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Pacific Alliance: Trading up? The Pacific Alliance pact has raised hopes of a boom in intra-regional trade, but the high degree of overlap between the export baskets of the member nations makes that unlikely. Nonetheless, the... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where and why we differ from the IMF The IMF downgraded its expectations for EM growth in today’s World Economic Outlook (WEO), bringing its forecasts a step closer to our own. Nonetheless, while there is now not much difference between... 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Picking apart the prospects for “frontier markets” After a stellar run over the past decade or so, growth across “frontier markets” as a whole is likely to slow over the next couple of years. But the moderation in aggregate growth will mask important... 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Focus shifts to home-grown vulnerabilities Concerns about the impact on emerging economies of tapering by the US Fed have taken a back seat as investors have begun to focus on issues closer to home. The worst fears about a “hard landing” in... 3rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil hikes but hints that tightening cycle now over Brazil’s central bank raised interest rates last night, but changes to the accompanying statement suggest this could be the final increase in this tightening cycle. Nonetheless, with inflation once... 3rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery falters Manufacturing across the emerging world appears to have taken another turn for the worse in the first quarter of this year. This was largely driven by a renewed downturn in the BRIC economies. By... 2nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican industry set to pick up, despite drop in PMI Brazil’s manufacturing PMI picked up a little in March, while Mexico’s manufacturing PMI edged down. But the bigger picture is that Brazil’s manufacturing sector is still barely growing. By contrast... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation heading in the wrong direction (again) Inflation in Brazil appears to be accelerating once again, and may have been as high as 6% y/y last month. A combination of droughts and a weaker exchange rate are contributing to the problem. But the... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia Election Watch – Next president must be a reformer It seems unlikely that the next Colombian president will be able to rely on a booming natural resources sector to support economic growth. As such, if Juan Manuel Santos is successful in seeking re... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Rocky road to elections despite better data Argentina’s new national accounts data add to the impression that the government is cleaning up its act and moving towards more orthodox policymaking. But with the economy in the midst of a slow... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Spike in agricultural prices unlikely to drive up EM inflation A spike in global agricultural commodity prices has raised concerns that the current period of subdued inflation in the emerging world could be nearing an end. But the recent increases still leave... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets steady after January rout Latin America’s financial markets stabilised in March after a woeful start to the year. In most countries, currencies and equity markets made modest gains. Colombia’s financial markets performed... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor BRIC economies continue to underperform Growth across the emerging world appears to have remained unchanged at around 4.5% y/y at the start of this year. The recovery in Emerging Europe has faltered, but this was largely due to the weakness... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
