Latin America Economics Update Mexico shifts towards a sweet spot Tempting though it is to blame the recent weakness of Mexico’s economy on problems north of the border, the truth is that many of the factors that have weighed on growth over the past six months or so... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth stuck in the slow lane Having shown signs of picking up towards the end of last year, growth across the emerging world seems to have slowed once again in recent months. The latest slowdown has been due to several factors... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Interest rates on hold for the rest of 2014 The Chilean central bank (BCC) left interest rates unchanged last night and, despite weak economic growth, our long-held view that rates will end the year at 4% looks increasingly likely. Elevated... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia Election Watch – major reforms unlikely (again) The expected re-election of Juan Manuel Santos as Colombia’s president is good news for peace talks with the FARC, but will probably mean that major economic reforms to boost the competitiveness of... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine economy probably slipped into recession in Q1 After contracting in the fourth quarter of last year, a poor start to this year means that the Argentine economy is probably already in a technical recession. Revisions to the government’s methodology... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Dollar-denominated bond yields to drift up this year The “stripped” spread of the JP Morgan EMBI+ Index has dropped below 300 basis points for the first time in about a year. However, we forecast the spread to rebound as less accommodative US monetary... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rising inflation to prevent interest rate cuts despite slow growth Rising inflation looks set to force policymakers in most parts of Latin America to keep monetary policy relatively tight despite evidence that the region is entering a new phase of weaker economic... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: Aggressive easing unlikely Interest rates in Peru were left unchanged at 4% last night and we do not foresee aggressive monetary easing in the next 18 months. While economic growth looks set to slow, we think that a large... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil Election Watch – rise in inflation eats into Dilma’s lead The latest opinion polls suggest that President Rousseff remains the clear favourite to win a second term in office in October’s elections. But there is evidence that rising inflation is eating into... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Weakness of EM exports not just a result of China distortions Emerging market (EM) exports continued to fall in March. Admittedly, this can in part be explained by distortions in the Chinese data, which appear to have persisted in April too. However, the bigger... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update El Niño to have limited impact on real economy The El Niño weather event that is expected later this year may cause some localised disruptions, but it is unlikely to have a marked impact on overall economic activity in the region. 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Drop in PMIs dashes hopes for sustained recovery in EMs April’s PMIs suggest that manufacturing across the emerging world softened further last month. While there are signs that manufacturing growth in the smaller EMs is starting to lose steam, the... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update The economic impact of World Cup 2014 The 2014 Football World Cup, which gets underway next month in Brazil, is unlikely to provide much of a boost to the country’s flagging economy in the short term – and it certainly won’t do anything... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Slow start to Q2 for Brazilian manufacturers April’s manufacturing PMI suggests that Brazilian manufacturers made a disappointing start to the second quarter. By contrast, the outlook for Mexican manufacturers continues to improve as the US... 2nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bigger investment plan boosts Mexican outlook The Mexican government’s plan to oversee investment projects worth a cumulative 46% of GDP, including an overhaul of the energy industry, should go a long way to ensuring that the economy is Latin... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean GDP growth remained weak in Q1 Chile’s activity data for March point to GDP growth of just 2.7% y/y in the first quarter, suggesting that the recent slowdown in the economy is here to stay. As such, we are increasingly comfortable... 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
