Emerging Europe Economics Update Recent increase in oil price poses little threat to EM inflation The recent increase in oil prices is unlikely to have much of an impact on EM inflation, which in most places looks set to remain fairly benign. 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine recession to drag on First quarter GDP data released yesterday showed that the Argentine economy was already in recession even before the latest wrangle with the holdouts from 2005’s debt restructuring. As such, we... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Where next in Argentina’s debt dispute? A series of statements from Buenos Aires over the weekend provide hope that Argentina’s government might be able to find common ground with “holdout” creditors. Reaching a mutually agreeable solution... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: pace of policy tightening to remain gradual Policymakers in Colombia hiked interest rates by another 25bp to 4% on Friday night and we expect the tightening cycle to remain gradual. Inflation is unlikely to be a major headache, while we expect... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Rapid Q1 growth unlikely to be sustained Strong government spending ahead of Colombia’s presidential elections appears to have supported rapid growth of 6.4% y/y in Q1, but we doubt that the current pace of expansion will be sustained. As... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs take heart as Fed sticks to taper plan Financial conditions across the emerging world have eased in recent months, as continued policy support from central banks in the developed world has supported risk appetite. This in turn has reduced... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Stuck in the slow lane Latin America’s economy looks set to remain stuck in the slow lane over the next couple of years. The drivers of strong growth over the past decade – including rapid credit growth and strong global... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Santos pips Zuluaga in Colombian elections The re-election of Juan Manuel Santos as the president of Colombia will ensure the continuation of peace talks with the FARC, but is unlikely to signal a shift away from the economy’s reliance on... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Can the BRICs regain their vigour? Four charts to watch The slowdown in EM GDP growth over the past couple of years has been driven in large part by weakness in the four largest emerging economies, the BRICs. Much of this weakness has, in turn, been caused... 13th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rates on hold at 4% in Chile and Peru Policymakers in both Chile and Peru left interest rates unchanged at 4% last night and we expect above target inflation to restrict the room for rate cuts in the second half of the year. On balance... 13th June 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack What next for Russia's financial markets? We do not think the recent outperformance of Russia’s financial markets and currency will last. Indeed, the ruble has already dropped back slightly over the past week or so. There are three key... 11th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A weak first half for growth After a torrid 2013, financial markets across Latin America have enjoyed a decent run over the first half of 2014, with most equity markets up by around 5% and bond yields edging down too. However... 11th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports strengthen a touch, manufacturers outperform Emerging Market (EM) export growth picked up a little in April and the rebound in Chinese exports last month suggests that it has since strengthened further. In aggregate, EM export growth is still... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Improving inflation outlook to keep interest rates low An improving outlook for inflation in Mexico suggests that Friday’s surprise interest rate cut is unlikely to be reversed in a hurry. We expect interest rates to remain at their new historic low of 3... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCB’s inflation headache goes from bad to worse The larger-than-expected rise in Brazil inflation in May leaves it on course to breach the upper bound of its target range over the coming months. This would be a major blow to the central bank... 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Less to EM reserve accumulation than meets the eye Foreign exchange reserve accumulation by emerging markets has been cited by some as a reason whybond yields in the developed world have fallen in recent months and by others as evidence that the... 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
