Latin America Economics Focus Venezuela on the brink of a balance of payments crisis Rampant inflation, a weakening currency and falling foreign exchange reserves mean that Venezuela has all of the ingredients for a balance of payments crisis. We expect GDP to contract by a cumulative... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Treading water Economic growth in Latin America slowed further in the first half of 2014 and we see little chance of a strong rebound over the coming quarters. The key props to strong growth in the past decade are... 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed tightening and EM vulnerabilities: a stock-take A handful of EMs – mainly in Asia – have taken steps to reduce their external vulnerabilities in the wake of last year’s “Taper Tantrum”. But these countries are the exception rather than the rule... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil Central Bank signals Selic on hold for time being The Central Bank of Brazil kept interest rates on hold at 11% last night and the accompanying statement gave a strong signal that rates are likely to be left unchanged over the coming months. We don’t... 4th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Export-focused EM manufacturers are outperforming August’s PMI data from the emerging world were something of a mixed bag. But one theme that stands out is that most export-oriented manufacturing economies are performing relatively well at the moment... 3rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil manufacturing may stagnate in Q3, but no rapid rebound August’s manufacturing PMI suggests that while conditions in Brazilian industry may have stopped getting worse, there is little evidence to suggest that manufacturers will lead a rapid rebound from... 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian tightening cycle nearing the end Colombian policymakers increased interest rates by 25bp to 4.50% on Friday but we think that the current tightening cycle is drawing to a close. The pace of economic growth is likely to slow over the... 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Drop back into recession ups the pressure on Brazil policymakers Second quarter GDP data showing that Brazil has fallen back into recession will add to pressure on the central bank to loosen policy in order to support the ailing economy. But we suspect that policy... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Pick-up in Asia masks downturn in Lat. Am. and Europe Our GDP Trackers suggest that although EM growth has been broadly stable over the past few months, a significant divergence in performance has opened up between regions. Growth in Asia seems to have... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Mexico turning the corner The past month has brought signs that Mexico’s economy is finally turning the corner. latestdata suggest that the Mexican economy has turned the corner. GDP expanded by a seasonally-adjusted 1.0% q/q... 28th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Latin America inflation woes deepen Although inflation at the aggregate EM level remains fairly benign, there are big differences between the main EM regions. Inflation is fairly low in most of Emerging Asia, but is high and rising in... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update No signs of contagion from Argentine debt saga The ongoing Argentine debt dispute continues to disrupt local markets, but so far there has been no contagion to the rest of the region. Equities have performed well so far in August, while it has... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Economic damage of Argentine default growing With hopes of a swift resolution to the Argentine debt dispute fading, capital flight appears to be picking up. As a result, the damage to the real economy is likely to be greater than we had... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican economy gaining momentum The fact that the annual rate of Mexican GDP growth slowed to just 1.6% in the second quarter (from 1.9% in Q1) will probably grab the headlines, but the bigger picture is that q/q growth accelerated... 21st August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Asia pulls ahead Growth in the emerging world has remained stuck at around 4.5% y/y in recent months, but the aggregate number masks a recent divergence in regional performance. Growth has slowed in Latin America and... 21st August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine bond swap dashes hopes of a quick end to debt dispute The Argentine government’s plan to swap exchange bonds into local law, if successful, may enable the authorities to exit the current default and limit any damage to the real economy from the debt... 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
