Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q4 2014) Having slowed sharply in the first half of the year, consumer spending across the emerging world has continued to weaken in recent months. Among the regions, Emerging Asia is the only place where... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Returning presidents dent hopes for reform Dilma Rousseff’s triumph in last month’s Brazilian presidential election made it a hat-trick of victories for incumbents in Latin America this year. Meanwhile, in Uruguay the Frente Amplio party is on... 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Export-oriented manufacturers faring well October’s PMI data suggest that EM manufacturing growth stabilised last month. Some of the smaller, export-driven EMs, particularly those in Central Europe as well as Mexico, areperforming well. But... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Sep.) September’s Brazilian industrial production data suggest that the sector remained a drag on the overall economy in the third quarter and, with both domestic and external demand set to remain weak, it... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) October’s PMI survey suggests that Brazilian manufacturing will continue to contract in year-on-year terms as we head into 2015. By contrast, the survey offers further evidence that Mexican... 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Bubble in US Treasuries should deflate soon If recent history is any guide, Fed tightening is unlikely to derail stock markets to the extent that many fear. Our view is that while US equities will struggle to make further headway, they will... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: next move in interest rates could be down Interest rates in Colombia were left unchanged at 4.50% last night and with economic growth slowing and inflation unlikely to pose a problem for policymakers, further interest rate hikes now seem... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank tries to claw back lost credibility The surprise decision by Brazil’s central bank to raise interest rates now, rather than waiting for Dilma Rousseff’s new government to take shape, is an early sign that tackling inflation could be... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The end of QE and what it means for emerging markets Most of the emerging world should take the end of QE3 in its stride. The link between QE and capital flows to EMs has often been exaggerated. And while some EMs look vulnerable as US rates move up, it... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s economy slowed further in Q3 Data for September suggest that conditions in some parts of Chile’s economy – notably manufacturing – improved following a weak performance in August. But the bigger picture is that GDP growth appears... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Low valuations should help to support EM equities Equities in emerging markets have fared poorly since the end of September, dragging down the price/12m forward earnings ratio in most regions to below its 5-year average, with the exception of Latin... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Markets suffer as Brazil elections deliver more of the same After a rollercoaster campaign that at times had promised to deliver a much-needed shift in economic policy, presidential elections in Brazil ultimately delivered more of the same. Dilma Rousseff was... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Dilma scrapes home, quashing hopes of policy shift in Brazil Dilma Rousseff's narrow victory in yesterday’s presidential run-off in Brazil has dented hopes that the elections might deliver much-need economic policy reforms. Growth in Ms. Rousseff’s first term... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus After the boom... The slowdown in Latin America over the past year is more likely to be the start of a new phase of weaker growth than a temporary blip. We expect regional GDP growth to remain stuck at 2-3% for the... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine economy slumps following default Capital outflows following the Argentine government’s default probably contributed to the slump in economic activity in August, leaving the economy on course to contract by 1-2% this year. Unless the... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Coffee market set to tighten Notwithstanding the possibility of consecutive weather-damaged harvests in Brazil, given the combination of this year’s fall in Brazilian output in advance of an “off” year, and pressure on stocks as... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
