Emerging Markets Economics Update EM monetary policy takes divergent paths Monetary policy is heading in differing directions across the emerging world. Several economies in Central and Eastern Europe, Asia (notably China) and Latin America have lowered interest rates in... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q3) Mexican GDP growth accelerated to its fastest pace since 2012 in the third quarterand, with demand from the US set to strengthen, we expect the economy to continueto build momentum over the coming... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will QE in Japan and the euro-zone affect EMs? The Bank of Japan’s decision to boost asset purchases just as the ECB edges towards QE has rekindled concerns about negative spillovers from developed world monetary policy to the emerging world. The... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Lower commodity prices bring mixed news for EMs Recent falls in commodity prices have left some emerging market (EM) economies in a tailspin. The S&P GSCI, an index of commodity prices, has fallen by more than 20% since its June peak, largely due... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 Consumer Prices (Nov.) The further decline in Brazilian inflation in the first half of November will be welcomed by policymakers, not least because the headline rate fell back into the target range for the first time since... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Easing cycle not over in Chile Interest rates in Chile were left unchanged last night at 3.00% and, although policymakers continued to signal the end of the easing cycle, we still think that it has a little further to run. With... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Can we trust Brazil’s fiscal figures? The official data published by the Brazilian authorities give a false impression of the country’s fiscal health. We estimate that various accounting tricks have helped to narrow the reported... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Acc. (Q3) Annual GDP growth in Chile dropped to a five-year low in Q3, but on a quarterly basis growth edged up a little. We expect a further, albeit gradual, recovery over the coming quarters. Meanwhile, the... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Another interest rate cut still likely in Peru Interest rates in Peru were left unchanged at 3.50% last night but, with economic growth still weak and inflation likely to fall back into target in the coming months, we are comfortable with our... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Brighter times should lie ahead for EM equities The performance of equities has been lacklustre in emerging markets since the end of September and noticeably worse than in developed markets. As a result, the return so far this year from the MSCI... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook A limp recovery The growing pile of cash held abroad by US firms, which has now reached more than $2trn, or 12% of GDP, is unlikely to provide much of a boost to the economy, not least because the prospects of that... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Credit bubbles deflate – but at the cost of weaker growth There are encouraging signs that the credit bubbles that had been building in a handful of major EMs are now deflating. But this process has only just begun – and the modest slowdown in credit that we... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Fragile EM export recovery facing more headwinds EM export growth picked up in September, continuing the sluggish recovery seen since the start of this year. However, the improvement remains concentrated in a handful of EMs, with commodity producers... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Sep.) A decline in mining output weighed on Mexican industrial production in September, but strong growth in the manufacturing and construction sectors suggests that the rest of industry is in good shape... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Oct.) The pick-up in Mexican inflation from 4.2% in September to 4.3% in October probably marks the peak for this cycle. We expect it to edge down over the rest of this year and think it could reach the... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Oct.) The larger-than-expected drop in Brazilian inflation last month will come as a welcome relief to policymakers but is unlikely to prevent interest rates from rising further over the coming months... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
