Global Inflation Watch Will the last mile be the hardest? The easiest wins in the disinflation battle are behind us now that base effects from the previous surge in energy prices have run their course. Indeed, we expect energy effects to lift inflation in... 18th January 2024 · 16 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Improved LatAm budget positions won’t stop debt rising Headline and primary budget balances across Latin America generally improved over the course of 2023 (Brazil was a key exception). But it seems unlikely that this will be sustained, and debt-to-GDP... 18th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Ecuador’s spiralling violence, diverging inflation story The dramatic escalation of violence in Ecuador this week is primarily a social and security problem, but there will be economic implications too. Activity is likely to be disrupted and the government... 12th January 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update LatAm currencies and equities may fare poorly this year We think that most major currencies in Latin American will fall against the US dollar this year. As a result, the relatively poor returns that we expect from equities in the region in local-currency... 12th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (December 2023) The renewed fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate in December, to 4.6% y/y, paves the way for another 50bp cut to the Selic rate (to 11.25%) at the central bank’s next meeting at the end of the... 11th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update IMF endorses Milei’s plans but hurdles ahead The IMF’s approval of the next disbursement of Argentina’s current deal will provide the government with the necessary funds to make upcoming repayments (due to the Fund itself). And the fact that the... 11th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Jordan’s economy stuck in malaise Economic growth in Jordan has been sluggish for the best part of a decade and the outlook doesn't look much brighter. While the renewed IMF programme will help to contain external strains, the Israel... 11th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.) The larger-than-expected rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.7% y/y in December was mainly due to higher non-core inflation but, even so, the odds of Banxico beginning an easing cycle at its... 9th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Mexico: will nearshoring live up to the hype? The optimism about Mexico’s economic prospects from the “nearshoring” of supply chains looks overdone in our view. Sectors where Mexico is already well established, such as autos and some electronics... 8th January 2024 · 28 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s IMF deal, Chile’s recovery, Nafta turns 30 President Milei's stabilisation plan for Argentina's economy makes it more likely that the IMF will agree to relax the current programme criteria when officials from both sides meet later today. But... 5th January 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina deregulates, Brazil’s tax reform, rate cuts The past week saw a flurry of pro-growth reforms that could boost long-term growth prospects in parts of the region. In Argentina, President Milei took a first big step towards reducing the role of... 22nd December 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (December 2023) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The surprising strength this year of the region’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico... 20th December 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile and Colombia cut rates and more easing to come The decisions yesterday by Colombia’s central bank to kick off its easing cycle and by Chile’s to accelerate the pace of easing appears to have been driven by the substantial improvement in the... 20th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Financial risks easing, but still areas for concern The more supportive global risk environment is helping to ease some financial strains across the EM world, but there are still pockets of vulnerability heading into 2024. Balance of payments positions... 19th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: first step towards defusing the ‘Leliq bomb’ At face value, the Argentine central bank’s (BCRA’s) decision yesterday to switch (and essentially lower) its policy rate seems at odds with the goal of tackling the country’s severe inflation problem... 19th December 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s belt tightening, Chile votes, LatAm & the Fed The fiscal tightening announced by Argentina's new administration this week is a step in the right direction but, with public discontent set to intensify, the government's commitment to fiscal... 15th December 2023 · 7 mins read
