Global Markets Update Will Venezuela’s oil problems spill over? Would a sovereign default in Venezuela, which now seems increasingly likely given the plunge in the price of oil, cause upheaval in the global financial markets? We suspect not, even though a... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Turkish lira to remain overvalued despite fall in oil prices The latest estimates by the Peterson Institute for International Economics in October suggested that the Turkish lira remains one of the most “fundamentally” overvalued emerging market currencies that... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Oct.) Having only just managed to limp out of recession in Q3, October’s industrial production data suggest that Brazil’s economy continued to struggle at the start of Q4. 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Uruguay: Vásquez victory unlikely to reinvigorate growth Continuity of economic policy following Mr. Vásquez’s victory in Uruguay’s presidential election is likely to ensure that inflation remains high and economic growth relatively weak. We are forecasting... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico & Brazil Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The November manufacturing PMI surveys continue to point to a sustained acceleration in Mexican manufacturing growth over the coming months. By contrast, another fall in the Brazilian PMI signals a... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: will the next move in interest rates be down? Interest rates in Colombia were left unchanged at 4.50% today but, with the risks to economic growthskewed to the downside and inflation under control, we think that rate cuts are becoming... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fall in oil prices pushes Venezuela even closer to default The writing is on the wall for Venezuela as falling oil prices exacerbate severe strains in the balance of payments. Both the government’s ability and willingness to service its foreign currency debt... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q3) The 0.1% q/q increase in Brazil GDP in Q3 means that the economy has limped out of recession, but the weakness of growth underlines the scale of the challenge facing the new team of economic... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Signs of improvement in smaller EMs Our GDP Tracker suggests that having sunk to a five-year low in August, EM growth edged up a little in September. The pick-up appears to have been driven by smaller EMs in Central Europe and Asia. In... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Two cheers for Brazil’s new economic team The announcement of a new economic team in Brazil – and the nomination of Joaquim Levy as Finance Minister in particular – will strengthen hopes for a return to more orthodox policies during President... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Inflation peaks in Brazil and Mexico Having increased steadily over the course of this year, there are signs that inflation in both Brazil and Mexico has now peaked. Data to the middle of November suggest that it should drop back in both... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Deflation concerns spread across the emerging world Following sharp falls in commodity prices, concerns have started to mount that parts of the emerging world are about to slip into a damaging period of deflation. Although we think that inflation is... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where could the next EM rate surprise come? Policymakers in several EMs – notably China – have surprised the markets with unexpected rate decisions over the past month or so. In this Update we identify the EM central banks that are most likely... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru GDP (Q3) Strong government spending drove a small pick-up in Peru’s GDP growth in the third quarter. But the bigger picture is that most other parts of the economy remained weak. 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM policymakers unlikely to follow China’s lead There is little reason to think that the decision by the People’s Bank of China to lower interest rates will trigger a spate of copycat responses from other EM central banks. China’s capital account... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currencies continue to lose ground Most of the region’s currencies have continued to depreciate against the US dollar so far this month, extending a period of weakness that began back in August. Looking ahead, while we think that the... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
