Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Oct.) Another fall in mining output meant that Mexican industrial production growth was weaker-than-expected in October. But the bigger picture is that the rest of the industrial sector continued to perform... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Ten key questions for EMs in 2015 The slump in oil prices and renewed falls in EM currencies over the past month have rekindled fears over the outlook for emerging markets. In this Focus we outline the ten key issues that we think... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rates in Chile and Peru to fall further in 2015 Interest rates in Chile were left unchanged at 3.00% last night but, with the economic recovery expected to be slow-going and inflation likely to have peaked, we are sticking to our non-consensus... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Are EM corporate bonds really that vulnerable? Since the end of October, emerging market dollar-denominated corporate bonds have performed much worse than comparably-rated US corporate bonds. This has been the result of increasing credit spreads... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Falling commodity prices douse the EM export recovery The recent modest recovery in EM exports stalled in October as global growth lost some momentum and sharp falls in commodity prices added to difficulties facing commodity exporters. More timely data... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Four charts that show Venezuela is in a crisis All of the signs suggest that Venezuela is already suffering an economic crisis, making it highly likely that the government will default on its foreign currency debt. 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine debt settlement increasingly unlikely before 2016 An improvement in Argentina’s foreign currency liquidity makes it much less likely that the government will reach a settlement with holdout creditors in the New Year and exit default. Indeed, we... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov.) The slight fall in Mexican inflation to 4.2% y/y last month suggests that the CPI rate has peaked and that it is on course to fall to the central bank’s 3% target by the second quarter of next year. 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Drop in oil price hits Colombia’s financial markets The continued slide in the price of oil has sent Colombia’s financial markets tumbling over the past month. The peso has dropped to a five-year low against the dollar, breaching both our end-14 and... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor External debt unlikely to spur widespread stress An increase in external debt has raised concerns that the emerging world faces a rough ride over the coming years as the dollar strengthens. However, our updated Capital Economic Risk Indicator (CERI)... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Nov.) The 0.5% m/m increase in consumer prices in Brazil in November was enough to keep the annual rate of inflation above the upper bound of the central bank’s target range for the fourth consecutive month... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will Fed hikes trigger another leg down for EM currencies? The US Fed is set to begin raising interest rates in the first half of next year, casting renewed uncertainty over the outlook for EM currencies. But big and necessary adjustments in many currencies... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Falling oil prices open the door to rate cuts in Mexico Mexico’s growth story has lost some of its shine in recent weeks. We still expect GDP growth to accelerate in 2015. But the recent fall in oil prices, coupled with the fact that fiscal policy is... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The end of an era for globalisation and what it means for EM trade The period of sluggish EM export growth over the past few years is only partly linked to the weak state of global demand. Another key factor is that the wave of globalisation over the previous decade... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: 50bp hike does not mark start of aggressive tightening The Central Bank of Brazil stepped up the pace of policy tightening last night but the accompanying statement gave a strong signal that future interest rate hikes are likely to be gradual. This... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Smaller EM manufacturers leading the way The latest PMI data suggest that manufacturing activity across the emerging world has improved in recent months, supported by a pick-up in some of the smaller EM economies. That being said, EM... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
