Latin America Economics Update Fall in oil prices leaves Ecuador facing sharp slowdown Ecuador’s economy faces a slump this year as the sharp fall in oil prices threatens to open up large twin current account and budget deficits. As a result, we are revising down our forecast and now... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: Recession to deepen and default likely in 2015 The Venezuelan economy faces a multi-year recession following the recent fall in oil prices. GDPprobably contracted by 3.5% last year and we now suspect that it could decline by another 5.0% thisyear... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing activity still subdued The latest PMI data suggest that manufacturing activity across the emerging world was steady, but still relatively sluggish, at the end of last year. Manufacturers in some of the non-BRIC EMs, such as... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Eight questions for 2015 We’ll start 2015 with some good news: having slowed to a five-year low of just 1.5% in 2014, we expect GDP growth in Latin America to accelerate this year. The bad news is that the pick-up is likely... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Oil price collapse lowers Russian ruble’s fair value Last week, the Russian finance ministry claimed that the ruble was “extremely undervalued”. Admittedly, it made the claim when the currency was around 70 to the dollar, and the exchange rate has since... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update A selection of key calls for 2015 and beyond We expect 2015 to be another year of large divergences in the performances of the advanced economies, with the US and the UK leading the pack and the euro-zone and Japan continuing to struggle. But... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Lat Am markets suffer end-year jitters Financial markets across Latin America have come under renewed pressure in the final weeks of this year. Part of the trigger has been renewed falls in oil prices. The currencies of two of the region’s... 22nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Who is most exposed to the debts of oil majors? The fall in oil prices has raised concerns about oil majors’ ability to service debts accumulated during the good times. Risks are concentrated in Latin America, but there is plenty that both... 22nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Unemp. (Nov.) Data to the middle of this month suggest that inflation is on track to fall back within target range in December. However, we doubt that this will be enough to prevent policymakers from raising... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil price falls won’t let high inflation EMs off the hook Although the recent drop in oil prices will continue to exert downward pressure on inflation in most parts of the emerging world, it won’t provide a lasting solution for the economies with high... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will sustained low oil prices affect EM currencies? The currencies of many emerging economies have sold off recently, due to general US dollar strength and, in some cases, declining oil prices. While our forecast that oil prices will remain low... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus The impact of the US shale oil boom on Lat Am There is growing evidence that, even before the latest drop in oil prices, the US shale oil revolution had started to weigh on oil producers in Latin America. Oil exports to the US from three of the... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of the latest currency sell-off The fall in most Latin American currencies over the past few weeks has taken them through both our end-2014 and our end-2015 forecasts. We still expect most currencies – notably the Brazilian real –... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Winners and (even bigger) losers from lower oil prices Most countries (and the world as a whole) should be better off as a result of the slump in oil prices, including key emerging markets such as China and India. Of the major advanced economies, Japan is... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack 2015 shaping up to be another lacklustre year The turmoil in Russia and broader weakness in EM financial markets has brought a subdued end to the year. For 2014 as a whole, the latest data point to aggregate GDP growth of less than 5% for the... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q3) Colombia maintained a relatively strong pace of growth in the third quarter, seemingly driven by construction and agriculture. However, given the recent oil price falls, we expect the economy to lose... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
